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Estimation of Time Dependent Reproduction Number for the Ongoing COVID-2019 Pandemic

19 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2020

See all articles by Arkaprabha Sau

Arkaprabha Sau

Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology

Santanu Phadikar

Independent

Ishita Bhakta

Independent

More...

Abstract

World Health Organization (WHO) characterizes the ongoing corona virus disease (COVID-2019) outbreak as Pandemic on 11.03.2020. As of March 15, 2020, there were more than 150000 confirmed cases in 142 affected countries with 5833 death. Basic Reproduction Number (R 0 ) - R naught, is one of the important predictors of severity of an epidemic. It is the average or expected number of infected persons that an infected person will produce in an entirely susceptible population in a defined geographical area. Infective power i.e. transmissibility of an infectious agent like virus, bacteria can be assessed by this parameter. During an ongoing epidemic for few weeks to months, “time dependent” reproduction number can be estimated at any given point of time. Serial monitoring of the “time dependent” reproduction number can help to understand the trajectory of the epidemic, to assess the effectiveness of the different interventions to control the epidemic, real time forecasting of the magnitude of the outbreak and formulating policies for risk communication strategies. In this article time dependent effective reproduction number for all the effected countries has been calculated based on likelihood estimation method which is more suitable for ongoing pandemic. A real time simple web dashboard has been developed for serial monitoring of the time dependent effective reproduction number along with magnitude of the outbreak for the corresponding country. This will be going to help the concerned professionals to take appropriate action based on scientific data driven evidence to fight against COVID-2019 pandemic.

Funding Statement: None.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Ethics Approval Statement: The authors stated that all the data used in this article are open source and free to use for academic and research purpose. No Ethical approval is required.

Keywords: Corona Virus; COVID-2019; Pandemic; Reproduction Number; SARS-CoV-2; WHO

Suggested Citation

Sau, Arkaprabha and Phadikar, Santanu and Bhakta, Ishita, Estimation of Time Dependent Reproduction Number for the Ongoing COVID-2019 Pandemic (3/15/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3556672 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3556672

Arkaprabha Sau (Contact Author)

Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology ( email )

BF 142, Sector 1
Salt Lake City
Kolkata, West Bengal 700064
India

Santanu Phadikar

Independent

No Address Available
United States

Ishita Bhakta

Independent

No Address Available
United States

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