Download This Paper
Preprints with The Lancet is a collaboration between The Lancet Group of journals and SSRN to facilitate the open sharing of preprints for early engagement, community comment, and collaboration. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early-stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision-making or presented without highlighting these facts. For more information, please see the FAQs.
Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared with Hunan, China
17 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2020
More...Abstract
Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection spreads rapidly in Italy. It is important to predict the epidemics trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies.
Methods: An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy, and Hunan, Province of China was used as a comparative item.
Findings: In the eSIR model, we estimated that there would be 20909 infected cases (95%CI 6164-45384) in Italy under the current preventive situation and the endpoint of the epidemic trend would be Apr 03 (95%CI: Mar 19 to Jun 02). Assuming current preventive measures have been taken on Mar 05 or Mar 10, the number of infected cases would be respectively 10636(95%CI: 2357-23326) and 7373(95%CI: 967-18915), and the endpoint of the epidemic trend would be respectively Mar 16 (95%CI: Mar 9 to Apr 22) and Mar 08 (95%CI: Mar 03 to Apr 03).
Interpretation: It’s suggested that Italy's current strict measures continue to be implemented, and necessary strict public health measures be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases.
Funding Statement: Army Logistics Emergency Scientific Research Project; Emergency scientific research of the army and the emergency scientific research of Chinese PLA General Hospital (20EP008).
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics Approval Statement: These data are collected through public health authorities' announcements and are directly reported public and unidentified patient data, so ethical approval is not required.
Keywords: Coronavirus; infectious disease; prediction; eSIR model
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation