Extended SIR Prediction of the Epidemics Trend of COVID-19 in Italy and Compared with Hunan, China
17 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2020More...
Background: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection spreads rapidly in Italy. It is important to predict the epidemics trend of COVID-19 epidemic in Italy to help develop public health strategies.
Methods: An infectious disease dynamic extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Italy, and Hunan, Province of China was used as a comparative item.
Findings: In the eSIR model, we estimated that there would be 20909 infected cases (95%CI 6164-45384) in Italy under the current preventive situation and the endpoint of the epidemic trend would be Apr 03 (95%CI: Mar 19 to Jun 02). Assuming current preventive measures have been taken on Mar 05 or Mar 10, the number of infected cases would be respectively 10636(95%CI: 2357-23326) and 7373(95%CI: 967-18915), and the endpoint of the epidemic trend would be respectively Mar 16 (95%CI: Mar 9 to Apr 22) and Mar 08 (95%CI: Mar 03 to Apr 03).
Interpretation: It’s suggested that Italy's current strict measures continue to be implemented, and necessary strict public health measures be implemented as soon as possible in other European countries with a high number of COVID-19 cases.
Funding Statement: Army Logistics Emergency Scientific Research Project; Emergency scientific research of the army and the emergency scientific research of Chinese PLA General Hospital (20EP008).
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.
Ethics Approval Statement: These data are collected through public health authorities' announcements and are directly reported public and unidentified patient data, so ethical approval is not required.
Keywords: Coronavirus; infectious disease; prediction; eSIR model
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