Individual Variation in Infectiousness of Coronavirus 2019 Implies Difficulty in Control

5 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2020 Last revised: 15 Apr 2020

See all articles by Daihai He

Daihai He

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Shi Zhao

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Shenzhen Research Institute

Xiaoke Xu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Zian Zhuang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Peihua Cao

Southern Medical University, Zhujiang Hospital

Maggie H. Wang

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care

Yijun Lou

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Li Xiao

Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine

Ye Wu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Lin Yang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - School of Nursing

Date Written: March 23, 2020

Abstract

We showed that the individual variation in infectiousness (the number of secondary cases of a typical index case) of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) probably have a higher k around 0.8 which is higher than that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) 0.16, but close to that of 1918 pandemic influenza 0.9. This means that COVID-19 is more difficult to control and relatively easy to sustain.

Note: Funding: DH was supported by General Research Fund (15205119) of Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. The funding agencies had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Conflict of Interest: DH was supported by an Alibaba (China) - Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. Other authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19, basic reproductive number, dispersion, negative binomial, mitigation

Suggested Citation

He, Daihai and Zhao, Shi and Xu, Xiaoke and Zhuang, Zian and Cao, Peihua and Wang, Maggie H. and Lou, Yijun and Xiao, Li and Wu, Ye and Yang, Lin, Individual Variation in Infectiousness of Coronavirus 2019 Implies Difficulty in Control (March 23, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3559370 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559370

Daihai He (Contact Author)

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Shi Zhao

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - Shenzhen Research Institute

China

Xiaoke Xu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Zian Zhuang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Peihua Cao

Southern Medical University, Zhujiang Hospital ( email )

Guangzhou, Guangdong Province
China

Maggie H. Wang

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Yijun Lou

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Li Xiao

Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine

China

Ye Wu

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Lin Yang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - School of Nursing ( email )

11 Yuk Choi Rd
Hung Hom
Hong Kong

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