Mathematical Models for Devising the Optimal SARS-CoV-2 Eradication in China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy
19 Pages Posted: 1 Apr 2020More...
Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention.
Methods: To improve forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to investigate the numerical spread of SARS-CoV-2 and eradication pathways.
Findings: Using the SEIR model, and including measures, such as city closure and holiday extension policy taken by the Chinese government which effectively reduced the β value, we estimated that the β value and basic transmission R0 of SARS-CoV-2 was 0 · 476 / 6·66 in Wuhan, 0·359 / 5·03 in Korea, 0·400 / 5·60 in Italy, and 0·638 / 8·93 in Iran. Considering medicine and vaccines, an advanced model demonstrated that the emergence of vaccines can greatly alleviate the spread of the virus. Our model predicted that 100,000 people would become infected assuming the isolation rate alpha is 0·30 in Wuhan, which was consistent with the reported number of infected people.
Interpretation: Our mathematical models propose that SARS-CoV-2 eradication depends on systematic thinking, effective hospital isolation, and SARS-CoV-2 medicine and vaccination, and some measures including city closure and holiday policy should be taken for SARS-CoV-2 eradication.
Funding Statement: G The work is supported partially by a grant (2018ZX10302103-003) from the National Special Research Program of China for Important Infectious Diseases, and a grant from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (81672383).
Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing financial interests.
Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Mathematical models, R0, Hospital isolation
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation