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Assessing the Potential Impact of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, Morbidity and the Burden on the Health Care System

24 Pages Posted: 1 Apr 2020

See all articles by Flávio C. Coelho

Flávio C. Coelho

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Escola de Matemática Aplicada

Raquel M. Lana

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program; Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Oswaldo G. Cruz

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Daniel Villela

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Leonardo S. Bastos

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Ana Pastore y Piontti

Northeastern University - Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems

Jessica T. Davis

Northeastern University - Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems

Alessandro Vespignani

Northeastern University - Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems

Claudia Codeco

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Marcelo F.C. Gomes

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

More...

Abstract

Background: Brazil detected community transmission of COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. In this study we identify which areas in the country are most vulnerable for COVID-19, both in terms of the risk of arrival of COVID-19 cases and the risk of sustained transmission. The micro-regions with higher social vulnerability are also identified.

Methods: Probabilistic models were used to calculate the probability of COVID-19 spread from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, according to previous data available on human mobility in Brazil. We also perform a multivariate cluster analysis of socio-economic indices to identify areas with similar social vulnerability.

Results: The results consist of a series of maps of effective distance, outbreak probability, hospital capacity and social vulnerability. They show areas in the North and Northeast with high risk of COVID-19 outbreak that are also highly vulnerable.

Interpretation: The maps produced are useful for authorities in their efforts to prioritize actions such as resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic and may help other countries to use a similar approach to predict the virus route in their countries as well.

Funding Statement: The study was not funded by any source. Some of the authors have scholarships: D.V is a CNPq fellow, RML is a Fiocruz fellow.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Ethics Approval Statement: Ethics committee approval not required. Data used in the study are aggregated without identification of individuals. They were obtained from official data sources.

Keywords: COVID-19; pandemics; Brazil; social vulnerability; mobility

Suggested Citation

Coelho, Flávio C. and Lana, Raquel M. and Cruz, Oswaldo G. and Villela, Daniel and Bastos, Leonardo S. and Pastore y Piontti, Ana and Davis, Jessica T. and Vespignani, Alessandro and Codeco, Claudia and Gomes, Marcelo F.C., Assessing the Potential Impact of COVID-19 in Brazil: Mobility, Morbidity and the Burden on the Health Care System (3/22/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3559609 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559609

Flávio C. Coelho

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Escola de Matemática Aplicada

Brazil

Raquel M. Lana

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Oswaldo G. Cruz

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Daniel Villela

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Leonardo S. Bastos

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Ana Pastore y Piontti

Northeastern University - Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems

Boston, MA
United States

Jessica T. Davis

Northeastern University - Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems

Boston, MA
United States

Alessandro Vespignani

Northeastern University - Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems

Boston, MA
United States

Claudia Codeco (Contact Author)

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program ( email )

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

Marcelo F.C. Gomes

Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (FIOCRUZ) - Scientific Computing Program

Rio de Janeiro
Brazil

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