On Multiple Structural Breaks in Distribution: An Empirical Characteristic Function Approach

Abstract

We estimate and test for multiple structural breaks in distribution via an empirical characteristic function approach. By minimizing the sum of squared generalized residuals, we can consistently estimate the break fractions. We propose a sup-F type test for structural breaks in distribution as well as an information criterion and a sequential testing procedure to determine the number of breaks. We further construct a class of derivative tests to gauge possible sources of structural breaks, which is asymptotically more powerful than the smoothed nonparametric tests for structural breaks. Simulation studies show that our method performs well in determining the appropriate number of breaks and estimating the unknown breaks. Furthermore, the proposed tests have reasonable size and excellent power in finite samples. In an application to exchange rate returns, our tests are able to detect structural breaks in distribution and locate the break dates. Our tests also indicate that the documented breaks appear to occur in variance and higher-order moments, but not so often in mean.

Keywords: Structural break, Joint distribution, Empirical characteristic function, Information criterion

JEL Classification: C12, C13