The Dynamic Impact of FX Interventions on Financial Markets
64 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2020
Date Written: March 2020
Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally, we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact persists for months. The signaling channel dominates the portfolio channel. Moreover, interest rates tend to fall in response to sales of the domestic currency, whereas stock prices of large (exporting) firms increase after devaluation of the domestic currency.
Keywords: Foreign exchange intervention, structural VAR, exchange rates, interest rates, stock prices
JEL Classification: F31,F33,E58
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation