Frequentist Methods for Statistical Inference

Frequentist Methods for Statistical Inference, in Handbook of Forensic Statistics (David L. Banks, Karen Kafadar, David H. Kaye, and Maria Tackett eds., CRC Press: Boca Raton, Florida

43 Pages Posted: 21 Apr 2020 Last revised: 27 Apr 2020

See all articles by David H. Kaye

David H. Kaye

PSU - Penn State Law (University Park); ASU - College of Law & School of Life Sciences

Date Written: January 20, 2020

Abstract

Statistical inference can be described as the process of drawing conclusions about a population or process based on sample data. This chapter outlines the logic of “classical” or “frequentist” methods for such inference. Three commonly used concepts for assessing statistical error are confidence intervals, p-values, and hypothesis tests. The chapter explains the reasoning behind these devices without focusing unduly on the computational steps. It also outlines the logic underlying resampling methods. It identifies common misinterpretations of computed quantities and discusses some of the comparative advantages and disadvantages of using confidence intervals, p-values, classical hypothesis tests, and likelihood ratios for various purposes in forensic science. Along with idealized, simple examples of probabilistic processes, it uses two principal examples from forensic science to illustrate the frequentist reasoning. The first involves an experiment to ascertain the validity and false positive probability of identifications made by latent fingerprint examiners. The second involves measurements of the refractive index of glass fragments.

Keywords: statistics, probability, forensic science, inference, likelihood ratios, hypothesis tests, confidence intervals, resampling, bootstrap, permutation tests, sampling

JEL Classification: C12, C13, C15, C18, C19

Suggested Citation

Kaye, David H., Frequentist Methods for Statistical Inference (January 20, 2020). Frequentist Methods for Statistical Inference, in Handbook of Forensic Statistics (David L. Banks, Karen Kafadar, David H. Kaye, and Maria Tackett eds., CRC Press: Boca Raton, Florida, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3561885

David H. Kaye (Contact Author)

PSU - Penn State Law (University Park)

Lewis Katz Building
University Park, PA 16802
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.personal.psu.edu/dhk3/index.htm

ASU - College of Law & School of Life Sciences ( email )

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Phoenix, AZ 85004
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.personal.psu.edu/dhk3/index.htm

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