The Attack Rate of the COVID-19 in a Year

3 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2020

See all articles by Daihai He

Daihai He

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Daozhou Gao

Shanghai Normal University

Zian Zhuang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Peihua Cao

Southern Medical University, Zhujiang Hospital

Yijun Lou

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Lin Yang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - School of Nursing

Date Written: March 27, 2020

Abstract

In this work, we showed that the classical theory of final size overestimated the infection attack rate in 2009 and 1918 influenza pandemic, if we only focus the first year.

Note: Funding: DH was supported by General Research Fund (15205119) of Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and an Alibaba-Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project.

Conflict of Interest: DH was supported by an Alibaba (China) - Hong Kong Polytechnic University Collaborative Research project. Other authors declare no competing interests.

Ethical Approval Statement: The ethical approval or individual consent was not applicable.

Keywords: attack rate; COVID-19; influenza

Suggested Citation

He, Daihai and Gao, Daozhou and Zhuang, Zian and Cao, Peihua and Lou, Yijun and Yang, Lin, The Attack Rate of the COVID-19 in a Year (March 27, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3562044 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3562044

Daihai He (Contact Author)

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Daozhou Gao

Shanghai Normal University ( email )

No.100 Guilin Road
Shanghai, 200234
China

Zian Zhuang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Peihua Cao

Southern Medical University, Zhujiang Hospital ( email )

Guangzhou, Guangdong Province
China

Yijun Lou

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Lin Yang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - School of Nursing ( email )

11 Yuk Choi Rd
Hung Hom
Hong Kong

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