Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Rorecast of Exchange Rates?

56 Pages Posted: 27 Feb 2003

See all articles by Lutz Kilian

Lutz Kilian

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Mark P. Taylor

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Brookings Institution

Date Written: November 2001

Abstract

We propose a nonlinear econometric model that can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rates. The model implies that near equilibrium, the nominal exchange rate will be well approximated by a random walk process. Large departures from fundamentals, in contrast, imply mean-reverting behavior toward fundamentals. Moreover, the predictability of the nominal exchange rate relative to the random walk benchmark tends to improve at longer horizons. We test the implications of the model and find strong evidence of exchange rate predictability at horizons of two to three years, but not at shorter horizons.

Keywords: Purchasing power parity; real exchange rate; random walk; economic models of exchange rate determination; long-horizon regression tests

JEL Classification: F31, F47, C53

Suggested Citation

Kilian, Lutz and Taylor, Mark P., Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Rorecast of Exchange Rates? (November 2001). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=356266 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.356266

Lutz Kilian (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

2200 North Pearl Street
PO Box 655906
Dallas, TX 75265-5906
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Mark P. Taylor

Washington University in St. Louis - John M. Olin Business School ( email )

One Brookings Drive
Campus Box 1156
St. Louis, MO 63130-4899
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Brookings Institution ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

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