Mitigating COVID-19 With Lockdowns: A Possible Exit Strategy

Abstract

Lockdown is now accepted as an effective public health measure of prevention and mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic. Over 1 billion people have been asked to stay home in over 50 countries and territories. There is little clarity on the optimal duration of a lockdown and how to strategize easing of restrictions without igniting a subsequent round of outbreak.

Lockdown involves hard choices and challenging to maintain essential services. Lockdowns do not offer a lasting solution, while a three-week lockdown is insufficient to prevent a resurgence.

We explore an exit strategy from lockdowns based on the natural history of Coronavirus. We add value to the concept of intermittent social distancing by adding a “localization” strategy after 14 days of lockdown within externally quarantined areas in which normal economic and educational activity can be resumed. We call it “COVID-Free, Externally Quarantined Territories” or CF-EQT.

Keywords: COVID-19, quarantine, health policy