Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID-19 breakout

57 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2020 Last revised: 3 Aug 2023

See all articles by Keyang Li

Keyang Li

University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) - School of International Trade and Economics

Yu Qin

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Real Estate

Jing Wu

Tsinghua University - Hang Lung Center for Real Estate; Tsinghua University - Department of Construction Management

Jubo Yan

Nanyang Technological University - School of Social Sciences

Date Written: March 29, 2020

Abstract

How does a new epidemic affect individuals’ expectations on economic prospects in the early stage of the breakout? We implemented an incentivized longitudinal online survey soon after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in China to answer this question. Results show that fewer new confirmed COVID-19 cases significantly increase individuals’ expectations on GDP and CPI growth rates. Our finding provides evidence that at the early stage of an unfamiliar epidemic, containing the spread of the disease may help to maintain positive economic expectations among individuals.

Keywords: COVID-19, Expectation, Longitudinal Survey, RCT

JEL Classification: I18, I15, D84, C81, C93

Suggested Citation

Li, Keyang and Qin, Yu and Wu, Jing and Yan, Jubo, Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID-19 breakout (March 29, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3563597 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3563597

Keyang Li (Contact Author)

University of International Business and Economics (UIBE) - School of International Trade and Economics ( email )

10 East Huixin Street
Chaouang District
Beijing, 100029
China

Yu Qin

National University of Singapore (NUS) - Department of Real Estate ( email )

4 Architecture Drive
Singapore 117566
Singapore

Jing Wu

Tsinghua University - Hang Lung Center for Real Estate ( email )

HeShanHeng Building
Beijing, 100084
China

HOME PAGE: http://thuwujing.net

Tsinghua University - Department of Construction Management ( email )

Heshanheng Building
Tsinghua University
Beijing, 100084
China

HOME PAGE: http://thuwujing.net

Jubo Yan

Nanyang Technological University - School of Social Sciences ( email )

HSS 04-68, 14 Nanyang Drive
Singapore, 639798
Singapore

HOME PAGE: http://juboyan.weebly.com

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