Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID-19 breakout
57 Pages Posted: 31 Mar 2020 Last revised: 3 Aug 2023
Date Written: March 29, 2020
Abstract
How does a new epidemic affect individuals’ expectations on economic prospects in the early stage of the breakout? We implemented an incentivized longitudinal online survey soon after the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in China to answer this question. Results show that fewer new confirmed COVID-19 cases significantly increase individuals’ expectations on GDP and CPI growth rates. Our finding provides evidence that at the early stage of an unfamiliar epidemic, containing the spread of the disease may help to maintain positive economic expectations among individuals.
Keywords: COVID-19, Expectation, Longitudinal Survey, RCT
JEL Classification: I18, I15, D84, C81, C93
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation