Forecasting the Economic Impact of Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan

CASS Working Papers on Economics & National Affairs, Working Paper ID: EC016UC (2020)

26 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2020 Last revised: 20 Apr 2020

See all articles by Usman W. Chohan

Usman W. Chohan

UNSW Business School; Critical Blockchain Research Initiative (CBRI); Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS)

Date Written: March 28, 2020

Abstract

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has already wreaked havoc on the international economy in numerous ways, differentiating itself in particular through its impact on the “real world” economy as opposed to financial market-specific damage. Both developed and developing countries are seeking to grapple with the pandemic, and all face limitations in their resource capacities; with the shortfall being more acute in the developing world. The aim of this working paper is to present some limited forecasting through scenario analysis using an aggregate demand approach for Pakistan, so as to illustrate the possible multidurational economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that, FY20 declines will be massive, but faster global and local recovery rates might spur a resumption of economic activity in FY21.

Keywords: coronavirus, pandemic, COVID-19, developing country, expenditure, national income, GDP, macroeconomics

Suggested Citation

Chohan, Usman W., Forecasting the Economic Impact of Coronavirus on Developing Countries: Case of Pakistan (March 28, 2020). CASS Working Papers on Economics & National Affairs, Working Paper ID: EC016UC (2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3563616 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3563616

Usman W. Chohan (Contact Author)

UNSW Business School ( email )

UNSW Business School
High St
Sydney, NSW 2052
Australia

Critical Blockchain Research Initiative (CBRI) ( email )

Centre for Aerospace & Security Studies (CASS) ( email )

Islamabad
Pakistan

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