Urgently Needed for Policy Guidance: An Operational Tool for Monitoring the COVID-19 Pandemic

14 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2020 Last revised: 8 Apr 2020

See all articles by Stephane Luchini

Stephane Luchini

National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) - Research Group in Quantitative Saving (GREQAM), EHESS

Miriam Teschl

Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS)

Patrick Pintus

Aix-Marseille University and CNRS

Mickael Degoulet

Aix-Marseille University

Christelle Baunez

Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone (INT)

Jean Paul Moatti

Aix-Marseille University

Date Written: March 30, 2020

Abstract

The radical uncertainty around the current COVID19 pandemics requires that governments around the world should be able to track in real time not only how the virus spreads but, most importantly, what policies are effective in keeping the spread of the disease under check. To improve the quality of health decision-making, we argue that it is necessary to monitor and compare acceleration/deceleration of confirmed cases over health policy responses, across countries. To do so, we provide a simple mathematical tool to estimate the convexity/concavity of trends in epidemiological surveillance data. Had it been applied at the onset of the crisis, it would have offered more opportunities to measure the impact of the policies undertaken in different Asian countries, and to allow European and North-American governments to draw quicker lessons from these Asian experiences when making policy decisions. Our tool can be especially useful as the epidemic is currently extending to lower-income African and South American countries, some of which have weaker health systems.

Keywords: Acceleration, Convexity, COVID-19, Data Dashboard, Detection of Infectious Diseases, Public Health Policy, Nowcasting, Sensitivity, Testing

JEL Classification: I18, H12

Suggested Citation

Luchini, Stephane and Teschl, Miriam and Pintus, Patrick and Degoulet, Mickael and Baunez, Christelle and Moatti, Jean Paul, Urgently Needed for Policy Guidance: An Operational Tool for Monitoring the COVID-19 Pandemic (March 30, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3563688 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3563688

Stephane Luchini

National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) - Research Group in Quantitative Saving (GREQAM), EHESS ( email )

Centre de la Vieille Charité
2, rue de la Charité
Marseille, 13002
France

Miriam Teschl

Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) ( email )

54, boulevard Raspail
Paris, 75006
France

Patrick Pintus (Contact Author)

Aix-Marseille University and CNRS ( email )

Ilot Bernard Dubois
5-9 Boulevard Maurice Bourdet
Marseille, 13001
France
0609397281 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/patrickpintus/

Mickael Degoulet

Aix-Marseille University ( email )

3 Avenue Robert Schuman
3 Avenue Robert Schuman,
Aix-en-Provence, 13628
France

Christelle Baunez

Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone (INT) ( email )

UMR7289 CNRS & AMU (Aix Marseille Université)
France

Jean Paul Moatti

Aix-Marseille University ( email )

3 Avenue Robert Schuman
3 Avenue Robert Schuman,
Aix-en-Provence, 13628
France

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
275
Abstract Views
1,837
rank
124,092
PlumX Metrics