Modes of Contact and Risk of Transmission in COVID-19: A Prospective Cohort Study 4950 Close Contact Persons in Guangzhou of China
40 Pages Posted: 9 Apr 2020More...
Background: Rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan prompted heightened surveillance in Guangzhou and elsewhere in China. Modes of contact and risk of transmission among close contacts have not been well estimated.
Methods: We included 4950 closes contacts from Guangzhou, and extracted data including modes of contact, laboratory testing, clinical characteristics of confirmed cases and source cases. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the risk factors associated with infection of close contacts.
Findings: Among 4950 closes contacts, the median age was 38.0 years, and males accounted for 50.2% (2484). During quarantine period, 129 cases (2.6%) were diagnosed, with 8 asymptomatic (6.2%), 49 mild (38.0%), and 5 (3.9%) severe to critical cases. The sensitivity of throat swab was 71.32% and 92.19% at first to second PCR test. Among different modes of contact, household contacts were the most dangerous in catching with infection of COVID-19, with an incidence of 10.2%. As the increase of age for close contacts and severity of source cases, the incidence of COVID-19 presented an increasing trend from 1.8% (0-17 years) to 4.2% (60 or over years), and from 0.33% for asymptomatic, 3.3% for mild, to 6.2% for severe and critical source cases, respectively. Manifestation of expectoration in source cases was also highly associated with an increased risk of infection in their close contacts (13.6%). Secondary cases were in general clinically milder and were less likely to have common symptoms than those of source cases.
Interpretation: The proportion of asymptomatic and mild infections account for almost half of the confirmed cases among close contacts. The household contacts were the main transmission mode, and clinically more severe cases were more likely to pass the infection to their close contacts. Generally, the secondary cases were clinically milder than those of source cases.
Funding Statement: Supported by the Project Supported by Guangdong Province Higher Vocational Colleges & Schools Pearl River Scholar Funded Scheme (2019), the Construction of High-level University of Guangdong (G619339521 and G618339167), and the Zhejiang University special scientific research fund for COVID-19 prevention and control (K920330111)
Declaration of Interests: None.
Ethics Approval Statement: Ethics approval was obtained from the Ethics Committee of Southern Medical University. Data collection and analysis of close contacts and source cases were also required by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China to be part of a continuing public health outbreak investigation. Written informed consent was waived in light of the urgent need to collect data.
Keywords: COVID-19, close contacts, modes of contact, risk of transmission
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