lancet-header

Preprints with The Lancet is part of SSRN´s First Look, a place where journals identify content of interest prior to publication. Authors have opted in at submission to The Lancet family of journals to post their preprints on Preprints with The Lancet. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These preprints are early stage research papers that have not been peer-reviewed. The findings should not be used for clinical or public health decision making and should not be presented to a lay audience without highlighting that they are preliminary and have not been peer-reviewed. For more information on this collaboration, see the comments published in The Lancet about the trial period, and our decision to make this a permanent offering, or visit The Lancet´s FAQ page, and for any feedback please contact preprints@lancet.com.

COVID-19 Infection Process in Italy and Spain: Are the Data Talking?

18 Pages Posted: 9 Apr 2020

See all articles by Paloma Monllor

Paloma Monllor

University of Valencia - Faculty of Medicine

Zhenyu Su

Universidad de Alicante - International Economy Institute

Laura Gabrieli

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Institute of Architecture

Ana Montoro

Albacete University - Emergency Department

María de la Paloma Taltavull de La Paz

Universidad de Alicante - International Economy Institute

More...

Abstract

Background: COVID-19 has spread successfully worldwide in a matter of weeks. After the example of China, all the affected countries are taking hard-confinement measures to control the infection and to gain some time to diminish the big amount of cases that arrive to hospital. Although the measures in China reduced the percentages of new cases, this is not seen in other countries that have taken similar measures, such as Italy and Spain. Now we are in the middle of a battle trying to prevent the healthcare system from collapsing while it effectively responds to the needs of patients who are infected and require hospitalization.

Methods: Using China as a mirror of what could happen in our countries and with the data available, we calculated a model that forecasts when are the peak of the curve going to happen. We aim to review the patterns of spread of the virus in the three countries and their regions, looking for similarities that reflect the existence of a common pattern in this expansive virulence and the effects of the intervention of the authorities with drastic isolation measures, to contain the outbreak.

Findings: A model based on ARMA methodology and including Chinese disease pattern as a proxy predicts a reduction of the speed of contagious during the last week of March in Italy and smooth reduction until the peak in the second week of April. In the case of Spain, the infections still will follow growing fast until the end of March.

Interpretation: We present the following predictions to inform political leaders since they have the responsibility to maintain the national health systems away from collapsing. We are confident this data could help them into decision taking and place the capitals (from hospital beds to human resources) into the right place.

Funding Statement: None.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: COVID-19; contagion pattern; ARIMA method; forecasting; Italy; Spain

Suggested Citation

Monllor, Paloma and Su, Zhenyu and Gabrieli, Laura and Montoro, Ana and Taltavull de La Paz, María de la Paloma, COVID-19 Infection Process in Italy and Spain: Are the Data Talking? (3/29/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3566150 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3566150

Paloma Monllor

University of Valencia - Faculty of Medicine ( email )

Avda. de los Naranjos s/n
Valencia, Valencia E-46022
Spain

Zhenyu Su

Universidad de Alicante - International Economy Institute

Alicante
Spain

Laura Gabrieli

Ca Foscari University of Venice - Institute of Architecture

1957 Santa Croce
30125 Venice
Italy

Ana Montoro

Albacete University - Emergency Department

Albacete
Spain

María de la Paloma Taltavull de La Paz (Contact Author)

Universidad de Alicante - International Economy Institute ( email )

Alicante
Spain

Click here to go to TheLancet.com

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
2,018
Downloads
137
PlumX Metrics