Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany

28 Pages Posted: 3 Apr 2020

See all articles by Jean Roch Donsimoni

Jean Roch Donsimoni

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Gutenberg School of Economics and Management

René Glawion

University of Hamburg

Bodo Plachter

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - University Medical Center

Klaus Wälde

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Gutenberg School of Economics and Management

Date Written: 2020

Abstract

We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic.

Keywords: Corona, COVID19, SARS-CoV-2, spread of infection, Markov model, Germany, projection.

JEL Classification: I180, E170, C630

Suggested Citation

Donsimoni, Jean and Glawion, René and Plachter, Bodo and Wälde, Klaus, Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany (2020). CESifo Working Paper No. 8183, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3567557

Jean Donsimoni (Contact Author)

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Gutenberg School of Economics and Management ( email )

Mainz
Germany

René Glawion

University of Hamburg ( email )

Allende-Platz 1
Hamburg, 20146
Germany

Bodo Plachter

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - University Medical Center ( email )

Langenbeckstraße 1
International Office Building 301
Mainz, 55131
Germany

Klaus Wälde

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Gutenberg School of Economics and Management ( email )

Mainz
Germany

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