Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy by Dynamical Modelling

Abstract

Epidemic analysis by dynamical modelling is a reliable and insightful way to analyse epidemiological data in order to extract key indicators about the outbreak and to make predictions on its future course.

We develop a generalised SEIR model based on Peng et al. 2020 and estimate it on a national and regional level against the data published daily by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile.

We find the inflection point for Italy to have been on the 21st of March, a plausible end date to be on the 14th of May and expect the total number of infected people to be between 155 thousand and 185 thousand people.

Keywords: COVID-19, Dynamic model, Outbreak analysis, Forecasting

JEL Classification: C61, C63, I10