Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy by Dynamical Modelling

10 Pages Posted: 10 Apr 2020

See all articles by Lorenzo Mangoni

Lorenzo Mangoni

Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies

Marco Pistilli

Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna di Pisa; University of Pisa

Date Written: April 3, 2020

Abstract

Epidemic analysis by dynamical modelling is a reliable and insightful way to analyse epidemiological data in order to extract key indicators about the outbreak and to make predictions on its future course.

We develop a generalised SEIR model based on Peng et al. 2020 and estimate it on a national and regional level against the data published daily by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile.

We find the inflection point for Italy to have been on the 21st of March, a plausible end date to be on the 14th of May and expect the total number of infected people to be between 155 thousand and 185 thousand people.

Keywords: COVID-19, Dynamic model, Outbreak analysis, Forecasting

JEL Classification: C61, C63, I10

Suggested Citation

Mangoni, Lorenzo and Pistilli, Marco, Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy by Dynamical Modelling (April 3, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3567770 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567770

Lorenzo Mangoni (Contact Author)

Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies ( email )

Biblioteca Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
Piazza Martiri della Liberta, n. 33
Pisa, 56127
Italy
3313035256 (Phone)

Marco Pistilli

Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna di Pisa ( email )

Biblioteca Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna
Piazza Martiri della Liberta, n. 33
Pisa, 56127
Italy

University of Pisa ( email )

Lungarno Pacinotti, 43
Pisa PI, 56126
Italy

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