The Impact of Corporate Social and Environment Performance on Credit Rating Prediction: North America versus Europe
Journal of Risk (Forthcoming)
37 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 17, 2019
We quantify to what extent the quality of credit rating predictions improves through integrating measures of corporate social performance (CSP) in an established credit risk model. We provide comprehensive evidence of the comparative informational advantage of considering CSP in predicting credit ratings of North American and European firms. In the North American sample both environmental and social performance have an explanatory impact. The out-of-sample prediction quality is improved by more than 0.8%. By contrast, only the social performance increases the explanatory power in the European sample while environment performance does not. Overall, we show that CSP is a relevant variable for predicting credit ratings. In general, our findings support the risk mitigation view of CSP indicating that firms with high CSP are less risky and thus have better credit ratings. However, obviously the quality of the relationship depends on the socio-economical and cultural environment as well, as can be seen from the differing results in North America and Europa.
Keywords: Credit risk, Credit ratings prediction, Corporate social performance, Risk mitigation
JEL Classification: G12, G24, M14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation