The Framework for the Prediction of the Critical Turning Period for Outbreak of COVID-19 Spread in China based on the iSEIR Model
24 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 4, 2020
The goal of this study is to show how we establish a general framework for the prediction of the critical so-called “Turning Period” which would play a very important role in assisting better plans for the time frame of emergence plans, in particular for associated looking forward planning such as the battle with the current spread from pandemics of COVID-19 worldwide.
By assessing the performance of prediction by using the iSEIR model for the timeline of the spread’s mechanics of COVID-19 in Wuhan on dates of Feb.6 and Feb.10, 2020 by using the concept of "Turning Time Period (Time Period)" to forecast the time frame for the control of the epidemic outbreak measured by a reduction in the number of people infected, it shows that our iSEIR model (an extension of the SEIR model) works very well to accurately predicted that “the COVID-19 situation in China would peak around mid- to late February as early as February 7, 2020”. This review also shows that the identification of the Turning Time Period is the key to have a successful implementation for emergency plan as it provides a timeline for effective actions and solutions to combat a pandemic by reducing as much unexpected risk as soon as possible.
Our study also indicates that the implementation of the emergency program in the practice associated with the “Isolation Control Program (or, say, Wuhan Quarantine Program )” since January23, 2020 by China in national level may be a good experiences by other countries and regions to take a lesson.
Keywords: Turning Period; Turning Phase; Spatio-Temporal model; iSEIR; Dynamically modeling; Delta and Gamma; Emergency Plan; Outbreak of Epidemic Infectious Disease; Supersaturation Phenomenon; Simulation; novel coronavirus (COVID-19); Isolation control program; Multiplex network
JEL Classification: E18, E27, E37, E66, G40, G41, H10, H12, H18, H51, I18
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation