The Framework for the Prediction of the Critical Turning Period for Outbreak of COVID-19 Spread in China based on the iSEIR Model

24 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2020

See all articles by George Xianzhi Yuan

George Xianzhi Yuan

Soochow University; Business School, Sun Yat-sen University; Guangxi University - Business School; Business School, Chengdu University; BBD Technology Co., Ltd. (BBD)

Lan Di

Jiangnan University

Yudi Gu

Jiangnan University

Guoqi Qian

University of Melbourne

Xiaosong Qian

Soochow University

Date Written: April 4, 2020

Abstract

The goal of this study is to show how we establish a general framework for the prediction of the critical so-called “Turning Period” which would play a very important role in assisting better plans for the time frame of emergence plans, in particular for associated looking forward planning such as the battle with the current spread from pandemics of COVID-19 worldwide.

By assessing the performance of prediction by using the iSEIR model for the timeline of the spread’s mechanics of COVID-19 in Wuhan on dates of Feb.6 and Feb.10, 2020 by using the concept of "Turning Time Period (Time Period)" to forecast the time frame for the control of the epidemic outbreak measured by a reduction in the number of people infected, it shows that our iSEIR model (an extension of the SEIR model) works very well to accurately predicted that “the COVID-19 situation in China would peak around mid- to late February as early as February 7, 2020”. This review also shows that the identification of the Turning Time Period is the key to have a successful implementation for emergency plan as it provides a timeline for effective actions and solutions to combat a pandemic by reducing as much unexpected risk as soon as possible.

Our study also indicates that the implementation of the emergency program in the practice associated with the “Isolation Control Program (or, say, Wuhan Quarantine Program )” since January23, 2020 by China in national level may be a good experiences by other countries and regions to take a lesson.

Keywords: Turning Period; Turning Phase; Spatio-Temporal model; iSEIR; Dynamically modeling; Delta and Gamma; Emergency Plan; Outbreak of Epidemic Infectious Disease; Supersaturation Phenomenon; Simulation; novel coronavirus (COVID-19); Isolation control program; Multiplex network

JEL Classification: E18, E27, E37, E66, G40, G41, H10, H12, H18, H51, I18

Suggested Citation

Yuan, George Xianzhi and Yuan, George Xianzhi and Di, Lan and Gu, Yudi and Qian, Guoqi and Qian, Xiaosong, The Framework for the Prediction of the Critical Turning Period for Outbreak of COVID-19 Spread in China based on the iSEIR Model (April 4, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3568776 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3568776

George Xianzhi Yuan (Contact Author)

Business School, Sun Yat-sen University ( email )

135, Xingang Xi Road
Guangzhou, Guangdong 510275
China
15010983759 (Phone)

Soochow University ( email )

No, 1 Shizi Street
Suzhou, Jiangsu 215006
China
15010983759 (Phone)

Guangxi University - Business School ( email )

Nanning, Guangxi 530004
China

Business School, Chengdu University ( email )

Chengdu, Sichuan 610106
China
15010983759 (Phone)

BBD Technology Co., Ltd. (BBD) ( email )

21F, Palm Springs Building
No. 199 Tianfu Avenue
Chengdu, Sichuan 610093
China
15010983759 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://http:www.bbdservice.com

Lan Di

Jiangnan University ( email )

1800 Lihu Ave.
Wuxi, Jiangsu Sheng 214122
China

Yudi Gu

Jiangnan University ( email )

1800 Lihu Ave.
Wuxi, Jiangsu Sheng 214122
China

Guoqi Qian

University of Melbourne ( email )

185 Pelham Street
Carlton, Victoria 3053
Australia

Xiaosong Qian

Soochow University ( email )

No. 1 Shizi Street
Taipei, Jiangsu 215006
Taiwan

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