lancet-header
Preprints with The Lancet is part of SSRN´s First Look, a place where journals and other research experts identify content of interest prior to publication. These preprint papers are not peer-reviewed. Authors have either opted in at submission to The Lancet family of journals to post their preprints on Preprints with The Lancet, or submitted directly via SSRN. The usual SSRN checks and a Lancet-specific check for appropriateness and transparency have been applied. Preprints available here are not Lancet publications or necessarily under review with a Lancet journal. These papers should not be used for clinical decision making or reporting of research to a lay audience without indicating that this is preliminary research that has not been peer-reviewed. For more information see the Comment published in The Lancet, or visit The Lancet´s FAQ page, and for any feedback please contact preprints@lancet.com

An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy, and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns?

60 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2020

See all articles by Samuel Sanchez-Caballero

Samuel Sanchez-Caballero

Polytechnic University of Valencia - Institute of Design and Manufacturing

M.A. Selles

Polytechnic University of Valencia - Institute of Materials Technology

More...

Abstract

Background: The present work develops an accurate prediction model of the COVID-19 pandemic, capable not only of fitting data with a high regression coefficient but also to predict the overall infections and the infection peak day as well.

Method: The model is based on the Verhulst equation, which has been used to fit the data of the COVID-19 spread in China, Italy, and Spain. This model has been used to predict both the infection peak day, and the total infected people in Italy and Spain.

Findings: With this prediction model, the overall infections, the infection peak, and date can accurately be predicted one week before they occur. According to the study, the infection peak took place on March 23 in Italy, and on March 29 in Spain. Moreover, the influence of the total and partial lockdowns has been studied, without finding any meaningful difference in the disease spread. However, the infected population, and the rate of new infections at the start of the lockdown, seem to play an important role in the infection spread.

Interpretation: The developed model is not only an important tool to predict the disease spread, but also gives some significant clues about the main factors that affect to the COVID-19 spread, and quantifies the effects of partial and total lockdowns as well.

Funding Statement: The authors have not received any funding for their work.

Declaration of Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Keywords: Coronavirus; COVID-19; prediction; model; China; Spain

Suggested Citation

Sanchez-Caballero, Samuel and Selles, M.A., An Efficient COVID-19 Prediction Model Validated with the Cases of China, Italy, and Spain: Total or Partial Lockdowns? (4/2/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3569848 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3569848

Samuel Sanchez-Caballero (Contact Author)

Polytechnic University of Valencia - Institute of Design and Manufacturing ( email )

Alcoy
Spain

M.A. Selles

Polytechnic University of Valencia - Institute of Materials Technology ( email )

Alcoy
Spain

Click here to go to TheLancet.com

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
1,043
Downloads
146
PlumX Metrics