The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social Distancing Behavior in the United States
26 Pages Posted: 15 Apr 2020 Last revised: 27 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 8, 2020
Anecdotal evidences point to effectiveness of COVID-19 social distancing policies, however, their effectiveness vis-a-vis what is driven by public awareness and voluntary actions have not been studied. Policy variations across US states create a natural experiment to study the causal impact of each policy. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, location-based mobility, and daily state-level data on COVID-19 tests and confirmed cases, we rank policies based on their effectiveness. We show that statewide stay-at-home orders had the strongest causal impact on reducing social interactions. In contrast, most of the expected impact of more lenient policies were already reaped from nonpolicy mechanisms. Moreover, stay-at-home policy results in a steady decline in confirmed cases, starting from ten days after implementation and reaching a 37% decrease after fifteen days, consistent with the testing practices and incubation period of the disease.
Keywords: COVID-19, Social Distancing, State Policies
JEL Classification: I18, I14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation