Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for COVID-19

25 Pages Posted: 18 Apr 2020

See all articles by Antonio Scala

Antonio Scala

CNR - Intitute for Complex Systems

Andrea Flori

Politecnico di Milano; Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering

Alessandro Spelta

University of Pavia - Department of Economics and Management

Emanuele Brugnoli

CNR - Institute for Complex Systems

Matteo Cinelli

CNR - Institute for Complex Systems

Walter Quattrociocchi

Ca' Foscari University of Venice

Fabio Pammolli

Polytechnic University of Milan - Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering; CERM Foundation

Date Written: April 9, 2020

Abstract

We develop a minimalist compartmental model to analyze policies on mobility restriction in Italy during the COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings show that a early lockdowns barely shift the epidemic in time: moreover, beyond a critical value of the lockdown strength, an epidemic that seems to be quelled fully recovers after lifting the restrictions.

We investigate the effects on lockdown scenarios and exit mechanisms by introducing heterogeneities in the model. In particular, we consider Italian regions as separate administrative entities in which social interactions through different age classes occur.

We find that, due to the sparsity of the mobility matrix, epidemics developed independently in different regions once the outbreak starts. Moreover, after the epidemics ha started, the influence of contacts with other regions becomes soon irrelevant. Sparsity accounts for the observed delays across different regions. Analogous arguments would apply to the international borders.

We also show how disregarding the structure of social contacts could lead to severe underestimation of the post-lockdown effects. Nevertheless, age class based mechanisms can help to mitigate rebound effects with milder strategies.

Finally, we point out that our results can be generalized beyond this particular model by providing a description of the effects of key parameters on non-medical mitigation strategies for epidemics.

Keywords: epidemics, demography, social contact matrix, mobility matrix

JEL Classification: C32,C41,C54

Suggested Citation

Scala, Antonio and Flori, Andrea and Spelta, Alessandro and Brugnoli, Emanuele and Cinelli, Matteo and Quattrociocchi, Walter and Pammolli, Fabio, Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for COVID-19 (April 9, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3572141 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3572141

Antonio Scala (Contact Author)

CNR - Intitute for Complex Systems ( email )

Via dei Taurini 19
Rome, 00185
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=ycmKlR8AAAAJ

Andrea Flori

Politecnico di Milano ( email )

via Lambruschini 4/B
Milano, Italy 20156
Italy

Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering ( email )

Via Lambruschini 4/B - building 26/b
Milano, 20156
Italy

Alessandro Spelta

University of Pavia - Department of Economics and Management ( email )

Strada Nuova, 65
Pavia, 27100
Italy

Emanuele Brugnoli

CNR - Institute for Complex Systems ( email )

Via dei Taurini 19
Rome, 00185
Italy

Matteo Cinelli

CNR - Institute for Complex Systems ( email )

Via dei Taurini 19
Rome, 00185
Italy

Walter Quattrociocchi

Ca' Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Lucca
Italy
3392922276 (Phone)

Fabio Pammolli

Polytechnic University of Milan - Department of Management, Economics and Industrial Engineering ( email )

Via Lambruschini 4C - building 26/A
Milano, 20156
Italy

CERM Foundation ( email )

Via Fiorentina, 1
Siena, Siena 53100
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.cermlab.it

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