Construction of Compartmental Models for COVID-19 with Quarantine, Lockdown and Vaccine Interventions

15 Pages Posted: 13 Apr 2020

See all articles by Gabriel Obed Fosu

Gabriel Obed Fosu

Presbyterian University College, Ghana

Joseph M. Opong

Presbyterian University College, Ghana

Justice K. Appati

University of Ghana

Date Written: April 12, 2020

Abstract

The COVID-19 disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been declared as a pandemic. To curb the spread of the virus, some preventive and control measures were outlined by the World Health Organization. The implementation of these measures depends on the severity of the infection and the countries’ prowess in battling the virus. On this premise, several compartmental models are formulated to investigate the dynamics of the coronavirus disease across the globe by taking into account some of these control measures. These models explain the transmissibility of the virus by considering quarantine, lockdowns, and vaccinations. The equations presented include the customary SIR and SEIR models. Moreover, these baseline equations are extended to account for quarantine, isolation, partial and total lockdowns, and vaccination programs. A flow diagram is presented in each case to elucidate the transmission phases of the coronavirus disease. Again, the SIR model is simulated to practically explore the dynamics of coronavirus in Ghana based on available data up until 9th April 2020. Instances when the basic reproductive number does not exceed one, the models predict that the coronavirus disease will be wiped-out in Ghana within the next two to four months.

Note: Funding: None.

Conflict of Interest: None.

Keywords: Coronavirus, SIR, SEIR, Quarantine, Vaccinations, Lockdowns

Suggested Citation

Fosu, Gabriel Obed and Opong, Joseph M. and Appati, Justice K., Construction of Compartmental Models for COVID-19 with Quarantine, Lockdown and Vaccine Interventions (April 12, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574020 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3574020

Gabriel Obed Fosu (Contact Author)

Presbyterian University College, Ghana ( email )

Box 59
Abetifi
Okwahu
Ghana
00233205037203 (Phone)

Joseph M. Opong

Presbyterian University College, Ghana ( email )

Box 59
Abetifi
Okwahu
Ghana

Justice K. Appati

University of Ghana ( email )

PO Box 25
Legon, Accra LG
Ghana

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