The Prediction for the Outbreak of COVID-19 in European Countries by Using Turning Phase Concepts as of April 9, 2020

19 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2020

See all articles by George Xianzhi Yuan

George Xianzhi Yuan

Soochow University; Business School, Sun Yat-sen University; Guangxi University - Business School; Business School, Chengdu University; BBD Technology Co., Ltd. (BBD)

Lan Di

Jiangnan University

Yudi Gu

Jiangnan University

Guoqi Qian

University of Melbourne

Xiaosong Qian

Soochow University

Date Written: April 9, 2020

Abstract

Based on a new concept called “ Turning Period”, the goal of this report is to show how we can conduct the prediction for the outlook in the different stages for the battle with outbreak of COVID-19 currently worldwide. Indeed, based on the data of April 9, 2020 with the numerical analysis, we are able to classify 13 countries in Europe fighting with COVID-19 into three different categories stages for the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases Worldwide Today.

We want to reinforce that emergency risk management is always associated with the implementation of an emergency plan. The identification of the Turning Time Period is key to emergency planning as it provides a timeline for effective actions and solutions to combat a pandemic by reducing as much unexpected risk as soon as possible.

Keywords: COVID-19; Turning Phase; Delta and Gamma; Emergency Plan; Outbreak of Epidemic Infectious Disease

JEL Classification: E18, E27, E37, E66, G40, G41, H10, H12, H18, H51, I18

Suggested Citation

Yuan, George Xianzhi and Yuan, George Xianzhi and Di, Lan and Gu, Yudi and Qian, Guoqi and Qian, Xiaosong, The Prediction for the Outbreak of COVID-19 in European Countries by Using Turning Phase Concepts as of April 9, 2020 (April 9, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3574989 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3574989

George Xianzhi Yuan (Contact Author)

Soochow University ( email )

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China
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Business School, Sun Yat-sen University ( email )

135, Xingang Xi Road
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Guangxi University - Business School ( email )

Nanning, Guangxi 530004
China

Business School, Chengdu University ( email )

Chengdu, Sichuan 610106
China
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BBD Technology Co., Ltd. (BBD) ( email )

21F, Palm Springs Building
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Chengdu, Sichuan 610093
China
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Lan Di

Jiangnan University ( email )

1800 Lihu Ave.
Wuxi, Jiangsu Sheng 214122
China

Yudi Gu

Jiangnan University ( email )

1800 Lihu Ave.
Wuxi, Jiangsu Sheng 214122
China

Guoqi Qian

University of Melbourne ( email )

185 Pelham Street
Carlton, Victoria 3053
Australia

Xiaosong Qian

Soochow University ( email )

No. 1 Shizi Street
Taipei, Jiangsu 215006
Taiwan

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