Мониторинг Экономической Ситуации в России: Тенденции и Вызовы Социально-Экономического Развития. Апрель 2020. N 7 (109). (Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development. April 2020. N 7 (109))

Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development, N 7 (109)), 2020

71 Pages Posted: 12 May 2020

See all articles by Natalya Zubarevich

Natalya Zubarevich

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting

Yulia Florinskaya

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting

Tatiana Flegontova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Economics of Natural Monopolies

Olga Ponomareva

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus

Yuri Bobylev

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Andrey Kaukin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Foreign Trade Academy

Evgenia Miller

Russian Presidential Academy of National economy and public administration

Alexander E. Abramov

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Alexander Radygin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Maria Chernova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research

Andrey Kosyrev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

Marina/Марина Larionova/Ларионова

МГИМО МИД России; MGIMO University

Andrey Shelepov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions

Sergey Vasilkovskiy

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

Alexander Ignatov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions

Olga Kolmar

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions

Irina Popova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions

A. Sakharov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions

Date Written: April 14, 2020

Abstract

Russian Abstract: Три предыдущих кризиса в России были разными, начавшийся кризис также имеет свои отраслевые и пространственные особенности. Риски занятости максимальны для проблемных отраслей рыночных услуг (более 10 млн занятых). Высокий риск безработицы имеют федеральные города и регионы с городами-миллионниками, а также внешние зоны агломераций федеральных городов, рекреационные регионы юга. Анализ структуры бюджетов регионов показал, что, в отличие от предыдущих кризисов, наиболее сильным может быть сокращение поступлений НДФЛ и налога на совокупный доход, который выплачивает малый бизнес. Меры поддержки занятости в отраслях рыночных услуг должны быть федеральными, но их ориентация на поддержку МСП позволит поддержать сектор рыночных услуг прежде всего в крупных городах. Возможности бюджетов регионов по поддержке занятости и бизнеса крайне ограничены, необходим значительный рост трансфертов из федерального бюджета с учетом территориальной специфики рисков.

English Abstract: The three previous crises in Russia were different, the crisis that began also has its own sectoral and spatial features. Employment risks are maximum for problematic sectors of market services (more than 10 million employees). High risk of unemployment are federal cities and regions with cities with over one million people, as well as the outer agglomeration zones of federal cities and recreational regions of the south. An analysis of the structure of regional budgets showed that, unlike previous crises, the most powerful may be a reduction in personal income tax and the tax on total income paid by small businesses. Employment support measures in the market services sectors should be federal, but their focus on SME support will support the market services sector primarily in large cities. The possibilities of regional budgets to support employment and business are extremely limited, a significant increase in transfers from the federal budget is necessary, taking into account the territorial specificity of risks.

Note: Downloadable document available in Russian.

Suggested Citation

Zubarevich, Natalya and Florinskaya, Yulia and Flegontova, Tatiana and Ponomareva, Olga and Bobylev, Yuri and Kaukin, Andrey and Miller, Evgenia and Abramov, Alexander E. and Radygin, Alexander and Chernova, Maria and Kosyrev, Andrey and Larionova/Ларионова, Marina/Марина and Shelepov, Andrey and Vasilkovskiy, Sergey and Ignatov, Alexander and Kolmar, Olga and Popova, Irina and Sakharov, A., Мониторинг Экономической Ситуации в России: Тенденции и Вызовы Социально-Экономического Развития. Апрель 2020. N 7 (109). (Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development. April 2020. N 7 (109)) (April 14, 2020). Monitoring of Russia's Economic Outlook. Trends and Challenges of Socio-Economic Development, N 7 (109)), 2020. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3577839

Natalya Zubarevich

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting ( email )

Prechistenskaya naberezhnaya 11
Moscow, Moscow 119034
Russia

Yulia Florinskaya

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting ( email )

Prechistenskaya naberezhnaya 11
Moscow, Moscow 119034
Russia

Tatiana Flegontova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Economics of Natural Monopolies ( email )

Russia

Olga Ponomareva

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Moscow Campus ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Yuri Bobylev

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereulok, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration ( email )

Vernadsky Avenue 82
119571
Russia

Andrey Kaukin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Moscow, 125993
Russia

Russian Foreign Trade Academy

4a Pudovkin str.
Moscow, 119285
Russia

Evgenia Miller

Russian Presidential Academy of National economy and public administration ( email )

Vernadskogo Prospect 82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Alexander E. Abramov (Contact Author)

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

3-5 Gazetny Lane
Moscow, 125009
Russia

Alexander Radygin

Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy ( email )

Gazetny pereulok, 3-5
Moscow, 125993
Russia

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Maria Chernova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Institute of Applied Economic Research ( email )

Russia

Andrey Kosyrev

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) ( email )

Vernadskogo Prospect 82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Marina/Марина Larionova/Ларионова

МГИМО МИД России ( email )

MGIMO University ( email )

Andrey Shelepov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Sergey Vasilkovskiy

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) ( email )

Vernadskogo Prospect 82
Moscow, 119571
Russia

Alexander Ignatov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Olga Kolmar

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Irina Popova

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions ( email )

Moscow
Russia

A. Sakharov

Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) - Center for Studies of International Institutions ( email )

Moscow
Russia

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
6
Abstract Views
39
PlumX Metrics