Should Contact Bans be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of its Effects

15 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2020

See all articles by Jean Roch Donsimoni

Jean Roch Donsimoni

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Gutenberg School of Economics and Management

René Glawion

University of Hamburg

Bodo Plachter

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - University Medical Center

Constantin Weiser

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Klaus Wälde

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Gutenberg School of Economics and Management

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Abstract

Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would be reached already in April. The number of sick individuals would fall below 1,000 at the beginning of July. When restrictions are lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should rise quickly again from around April 27. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, forecast Germany, epidemic, pandemic

JEL Classification: I18, E17, C63

Suggested Citation

Donsimoni, Jean and Glawion, René and Plachter, Bodo and Weiser, Constantin and Wälde, Klaus, Should Contact Bans be Lifted in Germany? A Quantitative Prediction of its Effects. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13151, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3579243

Jean Donsimoni (Contact Author)

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Gutenberg School of Economics and Management ( email )

Mainz
Germany

René Glawion

University of Hamburg ( email )

Allende-Platz 1
Hamburg, 20146
Germany

Bodo Plachter

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - University Medical Center ( email )

Langenbeckstraße 1
International Office Building 301
Mainz, 55131
Germany

Constantin Weiser

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Klaus Wälde

Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz - Gutenberg School of Economics and Management ( email )

Mainz
Germany

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