How Pandemics Affect Tourism: International Evidence

8 Pages Posted: 21 Apr 2020 Last revised: 9 Oct 2020

See all articles by Gokhan Karabulut

Gokhan Karabulut

Istanbul University; istanbul üniversitesi

Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin

Istanbul Medeniyet University

Ender Demir

Istanbul Medeniyet University

Aslı Cansın Doker

Erzincan Binali Yıldırım University

Date Written: April 18, 2020

Abstract

We document the negative effect of pandemics on tourist arrivals by using data for 127 countries for the period of 2000-2018. This effect is valid only for the case of low-income economies. The findings will provide insights for the possible effects of COVID-19 on the tourism industry. Once we consider the change in “Discussion about Pandemics Index” from 2019 to the first quarter of 2020, the model estimations suggest a tourist arrival decrease of 20% in the whole sample and 29% in low-income economies. This in line with the forecasts of UNWTO (2020). However, it should also be noted that the effect of COVID-19 is hard to predict, as the world has not experienced such a global pandemic before. As long as the travel bans and border closures remain, the negative effect will get higher.

Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemics, Tourism, Arrivals

JEL Classification: L83

Suggested Citation

Karabulut, Gokhan and Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin and Demir, Ender and Doker, Aslı Cansın, How Pandemics Affect Tourism: International Evidence (April 18, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3579530 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3579530

Gokhan Karabulut

Istanbul University ( email )

Istanbul
Turkey

istanbul üniversitesi ( email )

34459 Istanbul
Turkey
05309304154 (Phone)
34684 (Fax)

Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin

Istanbul Medeniyet University ( email )

D-100 Karayolu
Merdivenkoy Mevkii No:6/1 Goztepe/Kadıkoy
Istanbul
Turkey

Ender Demir (Contact Author)

Istanbul Medeniyet University ( email )

Cevizli Mahallesi, Gürbüz Sk. No:6,
İstanbul, 34685
Turkey

Aslı Cansın Doker

Erzincan Binali Yıldırım University ( email )

Erzincan
Turkey

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