Household Debt and House Prices-at-Risk: A Tale of Two Countries

44 Pages Posted: 21 May 2020

See all articles by Adrian Alter

Adrian Alter

International Monetary Fund

Elizabeth M. Mahoney

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: February 2020

Abstract

To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This paper finds that downside risks to housing markets in the United States have seemingly fallen over the past decade, while having increased in Canada. Supply-side drivers, valuation, household debt, and financial conditions jointly play a key role in forecasting house price risks. In addition, capital flows are found to be significantly associated with future downside risks to major housing markets, but the net effect depends on the type of flows and varies across cities and forecast horizons. Using micro-level data, we identify households vulnerable to potential housing shocks and assess the riskiness of household debt.

Keywords: Economic conditions, Price indexes, National income, Financial crises, Economic growth, Housing, Household Indebtedness, United States, Canada, Quantile Regressions, WP, household debt, capital flow, GFC, house market, overvaluation

JEL Classification: G1, G12, E37, R31, E01, G21, F16, C43, F3

Suggested Citation

Alter, Adrian and Mahoney, Elizabeth M., Household Debt and House Prices-at-Risk: A Tale of Two Countries (February 2020). IMF Working Paper No. 20/42, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3579664

Adrian Alter (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund ( email )

700 19th St NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Elizabeth M. Mahoney

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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