The Impact of State Shutdown Policies on Unemployment During a Pandemic

Abstract

We use high-frequency Google search data, combined with data on the announcement dates of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic in U.S. states, to isolate the direct impact of state-level NPIs on own-state unemployment in an event study framework. Exploiting the differential timing of the introduction of restaurant and bar limitations, non-essential business closures, stay-at-home orders, large-gatherings bans, school closures, and emergency declarations, we analyze how Google searches for claiming unemployment insurance varied from day to day and across states. We describe a set of assumptions under which proxy outcomes can be used to estimate a causal parameter of interest when data on the outcome of interest are limited. Using this method, we quantify the share of overall growth in unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic that was directly due to each of these state-level NPIs. We find that between March 14 and 28, restaurant and bar limitations and non-essential business closures can explain 6.0% and 6.4% of UI claims respectively, while the other NPIs did not directly increase own-state UI claims.

Keywords: COVID-19, coronavirus, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, NPIs, Unemployment, Google Trends, Economics, Health Policy

JEL Classification: C81, E24, I18, I38, J21, J23