History Is the Best Model – A Comparison of the COVID-19 with the 1918-19 Pandemic Influenza in United Kingdom

4 Pages Posted: 30 Apr 2020

See all articles by Daihai He

Daihai He

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Shi Zhao

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care

Yingke Li

Xinjiang Agriculture University

Zian Zhuang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Peihua Cao

Southern Medical University, Zhujiang Hospital

Daozhou Gao

Shanghai Normal University

Yijun Lou

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics

Lin Yang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - School of Nursing

Date Written: April 22, 2020

Abstract

We review the three mortality waves of 1918-19 influenza pandemic in England and Wales (EW), we also show all-cause and pneumonia and influenza associated deaths in pre- and post-pandemic periods. We argue that the current COVID-19 in EW is comparable to the major wave of 1918-19 influenza, thus the forecast of the trend in the next few month or years should consider that of the 1918-19 influenza.

Keywords: multiple waves, influenza, COVID-19, post-pandemic

Suggested Citation

He, Daihai and Zhao, Shi and Li, Yingke and Zhuang, Zian and Cao, Peihua and Gao, Daozhou and Lou, Yijun and Yang, Lin, History Is the Best Model – A Comparison of the COVID-19 with the 1918-19 Pandemic Influenza in United Kingdom (April 22, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3582393 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3582393

Daihai He (Contact Author)

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Shi Zhao

The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) - School of Public Health and Primary Care ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Yingke Li

Xinjiang Agriculture University ( email )

Xinjiang
China

Zian Zhuang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Peihua Cao

Southern Medical University, Zhujiang Hospital ( email )

Guangzhou, Guangdong Province
China

Daozhou Gao

Shanghai Normal University ( email )

No.100 Guilin Road
Shanghai, 200234
China

Yijun Lou

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - Department of Applied Mathematics ( email )

Hong Kong
China

Lin Yang

Hong Kong Polytechnic University - School of Nursing ( email )

11 Yuk Choi Rd
Hong Kong, 00000
Hong Kong

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