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Trends in Prevalence of Blindness and Distance and Near Vision Impairment Over 30 Years and Contribution to the Global Burden of Disease in 2020

45 Pages Posted: 5 Aug 2020

See all articles by Rupert Bourne

Rupert Bourne

Anglia Ruskin University - Vision & Eye Research Institute

Jaimie Adelson

University of Washington - Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation

Seth Flaxman

Imperial College London - Data Science Institute; Department of Statistics

Paul S. Briant

University of Washington - Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation

Hugh R. Taylor

University of Melbourne - School of Population and Global Health

Robert J. Casson

University of Adelaide - Discipline of Ophthalmology

Mukharram M Bikbov

Ufa Eye Research Institute - Ophthalmology Department

Michele Bottone

Imperial College London - Data Science Institute

Tasanee Braithwaite

Government of the United Kingdom - Ophthalmology Department

Alain Bron

University of Burgundy Franche-Comté - Taste and Food Science Center

Ching-Yu Cheng

Singapore National Eye Centre - Singapore Eye Research Institute

Maria V. Cicinelli

IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute - Discipline of Ophthalmology

Nathan Congdon

Queen's University Belfast - Centre for Public Health; Independent

Arthur G. Fernandes

Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP) - Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences

David S. Friedman

Harvard University - Department of Ophthalmology

João M. Furtado

University of São Paulo (USP) - Division of Ophthalmology

Ronnie George

Sankara Nethralaya - Department of Glaucoma Services

Rim Kahloun

Associated Ophthalmologists of Monastir

John H. Kempen

Harvard University - Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary

Moncef Khairallah

University of Monastir - Department of Ophthalmology

Van C. Lansingh

HelpMeSee

Janet Leasher

Nova Southeastern University - College of Optometry

Nicolas Leveziel

Anglia Ruskin University - Vision & Eye Research Institute

Hans Limburg

Health Information Services

Vinay Nangi

Suraj Eye Institute

Kolawole Ogundimu

Sightsavers - Programme Strategy

Konrad Pesudovs

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Optometry and Vision Science

Tunde Peto

Queen's University Belfast - Centre for Public Health

Nikolas Reinig

University of Washington - The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Serge Resnikoff

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Optometry and Vision Science

Alexander J. Silverster

SpaMedica

Nina Tahhan

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Optometry and Vision Science

Rohit Varma

Southern California Eye Institute (SCEI)

Ningli Wang

Capital Medical University - Beijing Tongren Eye Center

Ya Xing Wang

Capital Medical University - Beijing Tongren Eye Center

Tien Yin Wong

Singapore National Eye Centre - Singapore Eye Research Institute

Jost B. Jonas

Heidelberg University - Department of Ophthalmology

Theo Vos

University of Washington - The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

More...

Abstract

Background: The Vision Loss Expert Group and Global Burden of Disease Study have extensively updated estimates of global vision loss burden in 2020, temporal changeover 3 decades and forecasts for 2050.

Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of population-based datasets relevant to vision impairment (VI) from January 1980 to October 2018. Hierarchical models were fitted to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals, UI) of (1) mild VI (presenting visual acuity [PVA] <6/12 to 6/18), moderate to severe VI (MSVI; PVA <6/18 to 3/60), blindness (PVA <3/60); and (2) VI from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near vision distance visual acuity >6/12).

Findings: In 2020, an estimated 43.2 million (95% UI: 37.5-48.2 million; 55% female) people were blind, 295.3 (95% UI 267.0-325.5) million had MSVI, 257.3 (95% UI 232.2-284.7) million had mild VI, and 507.4 million (95% UI 369.3–663.8) were VI from uncorrected presbyopia. Globally among adults aged ≥50 years, age-standardised prevalence of blindness reduced by 29% between 1990 and 2020, while MSVI increased slightly (+2.4%). The number of blind people increased by 50.2% and MSVI by 91.6%. By 2050, we predict 895.5 million people blind/VI.

Interpretation: It is encouraging that age-adjusted prevalence of blindness has reduced over the past 3 decades, yet due to population growth progress is not keeping pace with needs. We face enormous challenges in avoiding vision impairment as the global population grows and ages.

Funding Statement: Brien Holden Vision Institute. Fondation Thea. Fred Hollows Foundation. Gates Foundation. Sightsavers International. University of Heidelberg.

Declaration of Interests: A.M. Bron, Allergan (C) Baush and Lomb (C), Santen (C), Théa (C) - (C) stands for consultant.

J Kempen: Consultant (DSMC Chair) for Gilead. Grants and contracts from National Institutes of Health/National Eye Institute; Sight for Souls; and Christoffel Blindenmission.

No other authors had conflicts to declare.

Keywords: Global Burden of Disease Study; Vision loss expert group; Vision loss; Blindness; Vision impairment; Refractive error; Cataract; Glaucoma; Macular degeneration; Epidemiology.

Suggested Citation

Bourne, Rupert and Adelson, Jaimie and Flaxman, Seth and Briant, Paul S. and Taylor, Hugh R. and Casson, Robert J. and Bikbov, Mukharram M and Bottone, Michele and Braithwaite, Tasanee and Bron, Alain and Cheng, Ching-Yu and Cicinelli, Maria V. and Congdon, Nathan and Fernandes, Arthur G. and Friedman, David S. and Furtado, João M. and George, Ronnie and Kahloun, Rim and Kempen, John H. and Khairallah, Moncef and Lansingh, Van C. and Leasher, Janet and Leveziel, Nicolas and Limburg, Hans and Nangi, Vinay and Ogundimu, Kolawole and Pesudovs, Konrad and Peto, Tunde and Reinig, Nikolas and Resnikoff, Serge and Silverster, Alexander J. and Tahhan, Nina and Varma, Rohit and Wang, Ningli and Wang, Ya Xing and Wong, Tien Yin and Jonas, Jost B. and Vos, Theo, Trends in Prevalence of Blindness and Distance and Near Vision Impairment Over 30 Years and Contribution to the Global Burden of Disease in 2020 (4/19/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3582742 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3582742

Rupert Bourne (Contact Author)

Anglia Ruskin University - Vision & Eye Research Institute ( email )

Cambridge
United Kingdom

Jaimie Adelson

University of Washington - Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation ( email )

2301 5th Avenue, Suite 600
Seattle, WA 98195
United States

Seth Flaxman

Imperial College London - Data Science Institute ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Department of Statistics ( email )

24-29 St Giles'
Oxford, Oxfordshire OX1 3LB
United Kingdom

Paul S. Briant

University of Washington - Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation ( email )

2301 5th Avenue, Suite 600
Seattle, WA 98195
United States

Hugh R. Taylor

University of Melbourne - School of Population and Global Health ( email )

185 Pelham Street
Carlton, Victoria 3053
Australia

Robert J. Casson

University of Adelaide - Discipline of Ophthalmology ( email )

Adelaide
Australia

Mukharram M Bikbov

Ufa Eye Research Institute - Ophthalmology Department ( email )

90, Pushkin str.
Ufa
Russia

Michele Bottone

Imperial College London - Data Science Institute ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Tasanee Braithwaite

Government of the United Kingdom - Ophthalmology Department ( email )

162 City Road
London
United Kingdom

Alain Bron

University of Burgundy Franche-Comté - Taste and Food Science Center ( email )

France

Ching-Yu Cheng

Singapore National Eye Centre - Singapore Eye Research Institute ( email )

168751
Singapore

Maria V. Cicinelli

IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute - Discipline of Ophthalmology ( email )

Milan
Italy

Nathan Congdon

Queen's University Belfast - Centre for Public Health ( email )

Belfast
Ireland

Independent ( email )

Arthur G. Fernandes

Federal University of São Paulo (UNIFESP) - Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences ( email )

São Paulo
Brazil

David S. Friedman

Harvard University - Department of Ophthalmology ( email )

250 Longwood Avenue
Boston, MA 02115
United States

João M. Furtado

University of São Paulo (USP) - Division of Ophthalmology ( email )

São Paulo
Brazil

Ronnie George

Sankara Nethralaya - Department of Glaucoma Services ( email )

Chennai
India

Rim Kahloun

Associated Ophthalmologists of Monastir ( email )

Combattant Suprême Avenue, 5000
Monastir
Tunisia

John H. Kempen

Harvard University - Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary ( email )

United States

Moncef Khairallah

University of Monastir - Department of Ophthalmology ( email )

Monastir
Tunisia

Van C. Lansingh

HelpMeSee ( email )

20 West 36th Street
4th Floor
New York, NY
United States

Janet Leasher

Nova Southeastern University - College of Optometry ( email )

Ft. Lauderdale, FL
United States

Nicolas Leveziel

Anglia Ruskin University - Vision & Eye Research Institute ( email )

Cambridge
United Kingdom

Hans Limburg

Health Information Services ( email )

Grootebroek
Netherlands

Vinay Nangi

Suraj Eye Institute ( email )

New Colony, Nagpur
India

Kolawole Ogundimu

Sightsavers - Programme Strategy ( email )

35 Perrymount Road
Haywards Heath
United Kingdom

Konrad Pesudovs

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Optometry and Vision Science ( email )

Kensington
High St
Sydney, NSW 2052
Australia

Tunde Peto

Queen's University Belfast - Centre for Public Health ( email )

Belfast
Ireland

Nikolas Reinig

University of Washington - The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ( email )

Seattle, WA
United States

Serge Resnikoff

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Optometry and Vision Science ( email )

Kensington
High St
Sydney, NSW 2052
Australia

Alexander J. Silverster

SpaMedica ( email )

SpaMedica House
Bolton
United Kingdom

Nina Tahhan

University of New South Wales (UNSW) - School of Optometry and Vision Science ( email )

Kensington
High St
Sydney, NSW 2052
Australia

Rohit Varma

Southern California Eye Institute (SCEI) ( email )

United States

Ningli Wang

Capital Medical University - Beijing Tongren Eye Center ( email )

Beijing
China

Ya Xing Wang

Capital Medical University - Beijing Tongren Eye Center ( email )

Beijing
China

Tien Yin Wong

Singapore National Eye Centre - Singapore Eye Research Institute ( email )

168751
Singapore

Jost B. Jonas

Heidelberg University - Department of Ophthalmology ( email )

Mannheim
Germany

Theo Vos

University of Washington - The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ( email )

Seattle, WA
United States

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