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Trends in Prevalence of Blindness and Distance and Near Vision Impairment Over 30 Years and Contribution to the Global Burden of Disease in 2020
Background: The Vision Loss Expert Group and Global Burden of Disease Study have extensively updated estimates of global vision loss burden in 2020, temporal changeover 3 decades and forecasts for 2050.
Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of population-based datasets relevant to vision impairment (VI) from January 1980 to October 2018. Hierarchical models were fitted to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals, UI) of (1) mild VI (presenting visual acuity [PVA] <6/12 to 6/18), moderate to severe VI (MSVI; PVA <6/18 to 3/60), blindness (PVA <3/60); and (2) VI from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near vision distance visual acuity >6/12).
Findings: In 2020, an estimated 43.2 million (95% UI: 37.5-48.2 million; 55% female) people were blind, 295.3 (95% UI 267.0-325.5) million had MSVI, 257.3 (95% UI 232.2-284.7) million had mild VI, and 507.4 million (95% UI 369.3–663.8) were VI from uncorrected presbyopia. Globally among adults aged ≥50 years, age-standardised prevalence of blindness reduced by 29% between 1990 and 2020, while MSVI increased slightly (+2.4%). The number of blind people increased by 50.2% and MSVI by 91.6%. By 2050, we predict 895.5 million people blind/VI.
Interpretation: It is encouraging that age-adjusted prevalence of blindness has reduced over the past 3 decades, yet due to population growth progress is not keeping pace with needs. We face enormous challenges in avoiding vision impairment as the global population grows and ages.
Funding Statement: Brien Holden Vision Institute. Fondation Thea. Fred Hollows Foundation. Gates Foundation. Sightsavers International. University of Heidelberg.
Declaration of Interests: A.M. Bron, Allergan (C) Baush and Lomb (C), Santen (C), Théa (C) - (C) stands for consultant.
J Kempen: Consultant (DSMC Chair) for Gilead. Grants and contracts from National Institutes of Health/National Eye Institute; Sight for Souls; and Christoffel Blindenmission.
No other authors had conflicts to declare.
Keywords: Global Burden of Disease Study; Vision loss expert group; Vision loss; Blindness; Vision impairment; Refractive error; Cataract; Glaucoma; Macular degeneration; Epidemiology.
Bourne, Rupert and Adelson, Jaimie and Flaxman, Seth and Briant, Paul S. and Taylor, Hugh R. and Casson, Robert J. and Bikbov, Mukharram M and Bottone, Michele and Braithwaite, Tasanee and Braithwaite, Tasanee and Bron, Alain and Cheng, Ching-Yu and Cicinelli, Maria V. and Congdon, Nathan and Fernandes, Arthur G. and Friedman, David S. and Furtado, João M. and George, Ronnie and Kahloun, Rim and Kempen, John H. and Khairallah, Moncef and Lansingh, Van C. and Leasher, Janet and Leveziel, Nicolas and Limburg, Hans and Nangi, Vinay and Ogundimu, Kolawole and Pesudovs, Konrad and Peto, Tunde and Reinig, Nikolas and Resnikoff, Serge and Silverster, Alexander J. and Tahhan, Nina and Varma, Rohit and Wang, Ningli and Wang, Ya Xing and Wong, Tien Yin and Jonas, Jost B. and Vos, Theo, Trends in Prevalence of Blindness and Distance and Near Vision Impairment Over 30 Years and Contribution to the Global Burden of Disease in 2020 (4/19/2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3582742 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3582742
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