More Than Words: Leaders’ Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the anti-scientific rhetoric of modern populists can induce followers to engage in risky behavior. We gather electoral information, credit card expenses, and geo-localized mobile phone data for approximately 60 million devices in Brazil. After the president publicly dismissed the risks of the COVID-19 pandemic and challenged scientific recommendations, social distancing in pro-government localities declined. Consistently, credit card expenses increased immediately. Results are driven by localities with higher media penetration levels, active Twitter accounts, and a larger proportion of Evangelical Christians, a critical electoral group.

Keywords: Health, Coronavirus, Leadership, Persuasion, Risky Behavior, Social Distancing

JEL Classification: D1, I31, Z13