Are Revisions to Usda Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed?

14 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2020

See all articles by Olga Isengildina

Olga Isengildina

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Scott H. Irwin

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Darrel L. Good

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics

Date Written: November 2006

Abstract

This article uses Nordhaus' framework to determine the efficiency of the revision process for USDA corn and soybean production forecasts over the 1970/1971 through 2004/2005 marketing years. Positive autocorrelation and consistency of directional changes in forecast revisions suggest these forecasts are “smoothed.” Evidence is provided that the loss in forecast accuracy due to smoothing is statistically and economically significant in several cases. A conservative bias in farm operators' assessments of yield potential and in the procedure for translating enumerator's information about plant fruit counts into objective yield estimates are identified as plausible sources of smoothing.

Keywords: corn, efficiency, fixed-event forecasts, revisions, smoothing, soybeans

Suggested Citation

Isengildina, Olga and Irwin, Scott and Good, Darrel L., Are Revisions to Usda Crop Production Forecasts Smoothed? (November 2006). American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 88, Issue 4, pp. 1091-1104, 2006, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3582936 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2006.00918.x

Olga Isengildina (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Scott Irwin

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

344 Mumford Hall
1301 W. Gregory Dr.
Urbana, IL 61801
United States
217-333-6087 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://scotthirwin.com/

Darrel L. Good

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics ( email )

1301 W. Gregory Drive
326 Mumford Hall, MC-710
Urbana, IL 61801
United States

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