Road to Recovery: From Extinguishing An Epidemic to Managing It
19 Pages Posted: 30 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 23, 2020
Without widespread immunization of the population or complete eradication of the virus, the road to recovery from the current COVID-19 lockdowns will follow a path that strikes the difficult balance between the social and economic benefits of liberty and the death toll from the disease. We provide an approach that combines epidemiology and economic models by taking as given the constraint that the maximum capacity of the health care system must not be exceeded. Treating the transmission rate as a decreasing function of the severity of the lockdown, we determine the minimal lockdown that satisfies this constraint.
Keywords: COVID-19, SIR models, capacity constraints, managing an epidemic
JEL Classification: H51, I18
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation