The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses

15 Pages Posted: 28 Apr 2020

See all articles by Roman Keeney

Roman Keeney

Purdue University

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis; Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP)

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Date Written: November 2009

Abstract

Recent analysis has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel. A controversial element of this debate is the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding cropland conversion in the face of biofuels growth. We find that standard assumptions of yield response are unduly restrictive. Furthermore, we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specifications as critical considerations for predicting global land use change. Sensitivity analysis reveals that each of these contributes importantly to parametric uncertainty.

Keywords: biofuels, general equilibrium, indirect land use, international trade, yield response

Suggested Citation

Keeney, Roman and Hertel, Thomas W., The Indirect Land Use Impacts of United States Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses (November 2009). American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 91, Issue 4, pp. 895-909, 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3585853 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8276.2009.01308.x

Roman Keeney (Contact Author)

Purdue University ( email )

610 Purdue Mall
West Lafayette, IN 47907
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Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis ( email )

Department of Agricultural Economics
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765-494-9176 (Fax)

Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP) ( email )

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Chicago, IL 60637
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