Presentation Slides for 'Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts'

26 Pages Posted: 18 May 2020

See all articles by David A. Hirshleifer

David A. Hirshleifer

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business; NBER

Yaron Levi

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business

Ben Lourie

University of California, Irvine

Siew Hong Teoh

University of California, Irvine - Accounting Area

Date Written: April 26, 2020

Abstract

Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts’ judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the more forecasts an analyst issues, the higher the likelihood the analyst resorts to more heuristic decisions by herding more closely with the consensus forecast, self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst decision fatigue.

Keywords: Analysts, Decision fatigue, Heuristic, Behavioral finance

JEL Classification: D03, G14, G20

Suggested Citation

Hirshleifer, David A. and Levi, Yaron and Lourie, Ben and Teoh, Siew Hong, Presentation Slides for 'Decision Fatigue and Heuristic Analyst Forecasts' (April 26, 2020). Journal of Financial Economics (JFE), Vol. 133, No. 1, 2019, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3585941

David A. Hirshleifer

University of California, Irvine - Paul Merage School of Business ( email )

Paul Merage School of Business
Irvine, CA California 92697-3125
United States

HOME PAGE: http://sites.uci.edu/dhirshle/

NBER ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Yaron Levi (Contact Author)

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business ( email )

Marshall School of Business
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

Ben Lourie

University of California, Irvine ( email )

Irvine, CA 92697-3125
United States

Siew Hong Teoh

University of California, Irvine - Accounting Area ( email )

Irvine, CA 92697-3125
United States

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