MODERN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOUR AND PROPOSED TREND-LIKE FORECASTING MODEL

5th Edition Conference of Econometric Research in Finance by Warsaw School of Economics, Poland. 18th September, 2020

487 Pages Posted: 27 May 2020 Last revised: 30 Nov 2021

Date Written: May 1, 2020

Abstract

The study examined high volatile assets, specifically the currency exchange rate of the open financial market. Takes into consideration the five most traded paired currencies of the global financial market. And observed, generally, the dataset of the unit currency exchange rate exhibits homoscedastic qualities, making its dataset appropriate in the modelling adoption of auto-regression integrated moving average, as a reliable forecasting method for future pricing of the volatile assets. However, the current model prediction does address only the magnitude of asset price, ignoring its direction vector, which is the paramount interest and challenge of modern forecasters. Hence, the paper strives to solve such weaknesses of the model by introducing a momentum model as a complementary tool to the ARIMA model, to determine not only the price magnitude but the vector direction of volatile asset pricing, relative to the market, dependent on its lagged values.

Keywords: Forecast, Momentum-Model, Exchange Rate, Homoscedacity, ARIMA, GARCH, Hard-Currency

JEL Classification: G02, G11, G12, G15, G17

Suggested Citation

Tweneboah Senzu, Emmanuel, MODERN CURRENCY EXCHANGE RATE BEHAVIOUR AND PROPOSED TREND-LIKE FORECASTING MODEL (May 1, 2020). 5th Edition Conference of Econometric Research in Finance by Warsaw School of Economics, Poland. 18th September, 2020, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3587550 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3587550

Emmanuel Tweneboah Senzu (Contact Author)

Njala University ( email )

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Freetown, FL Southern 000232
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HOME PAGE: http://https://www.njala.edu.sl

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