Starke Erwartungsreaktionen auf Angela Merkels Covid-Erklärungen (Expectations about Covid Shutdown React Strongly to Angela Merkel’s Announcements)

12 Pages Posted: 4 May 2020

See all articles by Peter Haan

Peter Haan

DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Andreas Peichl

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Annekatrin Schrenker

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Georg Weizsäcker

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)

Joachim Winter

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU)

Date Written: April 2020

Abstract

German Abstract: Wir führen hochfrequente Befragungen der in Deutschland lebenden Personen durch und erheben die Erwartungen zur Dauer der Covid-bedingten Beschränkungen des öffentlichen Lebens. In einer ersten Analyse der Daten finden wir Hinweise, dass zwei in den Erhebungszeitraum fallenden öffentlichen Auftritte von Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel die Erwartungen stark beeinflussen. Insbesondere messen wir nach Merkels Pressekonferenz vom 15.4.2020 eine deutlich pessimistische Bewegung der Erwartungen und die beabsichtigten Konsumausgaben der Haushalte sinken zeitgleich. Die Ergebnisse legen nahe, dass die deutsche Politik über die Möglichkeit eines sehr wirksamen Erwartungsmanagements verfügt.

English Abstract: We conduct a high-frequency elicitation of expectations held by Germany’s general population about the lifting of restrictions that policymakers impose in response to the Covid pandemic. Our first data analysis covers a time period during which period Chancellor Angela Merkel made two widely broadcasted public appearances. The data suggest that her statements have a strong effect on the public’s expectations about the restrictions, especially in her appearance on Aril 15, 2020. Immediately after the appearance, expectations become significantly more pessimistic and intended consumption expenditures falls sharply. The results illustrates that German policymakers can manage expectations effectively.

Keywords: Economic Expectations, Covid Shutdown

JEL Classification: D12,D84

Suggested Citation

Haan, Peter and Peichl, Andreas and Schrenker, Annekatrin and Weizsäcker, Georg and Winter, Joachim, Starke Erwartungsreaktionen auf Angela Merkels Covid-Erklärungen (Expectations about Covid Shutdown React Strongly to Angela Merkel’s Announcements) (April 2020). DIW Berlin Discussion Paper No. 1865, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3589159 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3589159

Peter Haan (Contact Author)

DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Andreas Peichl

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Annekatrin Schrenker

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Georg Weizsäcker

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) ( email )

Mohrenstraße 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

Joachim Winter

Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich (LMU) ( email )

Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1
Munich, DE Bavaria 80539
Germany

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