De-escalation by Reversing the Escalation with a Stronger Synergistic Package of Contact Tracing, Quarantine, Isolation and Personal Protection: Feasibility of Preventing a COVID-19 Rebound in Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study
15 Pages Posted: 18 May 2020
Date Written: May 1, 2020
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadian provinces have gone through four distinct phases of social distancing and enhanced testing. A transmission dynamics model fitted to the cumulative case time series data permits us to estimate the effectiveness of interventions implemented in terms of the contact rate, probability of transmission per contact, proportion of isolated contacts, and detection rate. This allows us to calculate the control reproduction number during different phases (which is gradually decreasing until it becomes smaller than one). Therefore, we can derive the necessary and sufficient conditions in terms of enhanced social distancing, personal protection, contact tracing, quarantine/isolation strength at each escalation phase for the disease control to avoid a rebound. This research aims to quantify these conditions for de-escalation by simply reversing the escalation process.
Note: Funding: This research has been funded by the Canadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR) 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) rapid research program.
Conflict of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
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