Climate, Urbanization, and Conflict: The Effects of Weather Shocks and Floods on Urban Social Disorder

30 Pages Posted: 4 May 2020

See all articles by David Castells-Quintana

David Castells-Quintana

Autonomous University of Barcelona - Department of Applied Economics; University of Barcelona - Regional Quantitative Analysis Group (AQR-IREA)

Thomas K. J. McDermott

SEMRU, Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway; London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment

Date Written: July 23, 2019

Abstract

In this paper, we test the effect of weather shocks and floods on urban social disorder for a panel of large cities in developing countries. We focus on a particular mechanism, namely the displacement of population into (large) cities. We test this hypothesis using a novel dataset on floods—distinguishing those that affected large cities directly from those that occurred outside of our sample of large cities. Floods are found to be associated with faster growth of the population in the city, and in turn with a higher likelihood (and frequency) of urban social disorder events. Our evidence suggests that the effects of floods on urban social disorder occur (mainly) through the displacement of population, and the “push” of people into large cities. Our findings have important implications for evaluating future climate change, as well as for policies regarding adaptation to climate change and disaster resilience.

Keywords: climate change, conflict, floods, migration, rainfall, social disorder, urbanization

JEL Classification: D90, I30, J60, O10, Q00, Q01, Q50

Suggested Citation

Castells-Quintana, David and McDermott, Thomas K. J., Climate, Urbanization, and Conflict: The Effects of Weather Shocks and Floods on Urban Social Disorder (July 23, 2019). Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series No. 588, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3590195 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3590195

David Castells-Quintana (Contact Author)

Autonomous University of Barcelona - Department of Applied Economics ( email )

Departamento de Economía Aplicada
Bellaterra, Barcelona 08193
Spain

University of Barcelona - Regional Quantitative Analysis Group (AQR-IREA) ( email )

Tower IV
Av. Diagonal 690
Barcelona, 08034
Spain

Thomas K. J. McDermott

SEMRU, Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway ( email )

University Road
Galway, Co. Kildare
Ireland

HOME PAGE: http://https://thomaskjmcdermott.wordpress.com

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) - Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
Great Britain

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
7
Abstract Views
176
PlumX Metrics