SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Implied by the Serology, Antibody, Testing in New York City

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, infection fatality rate (IFR) has been hard to accurately estimate. It is a key parameter for disease modeling and policy decisions. Asymptomatic spread and limited testing have understated infections in hard to predict ways across jurisdictions. We survey serology, antibody, studies of the COVID-19 infection to find official cases are understated by an average of 25-to-1. Further, we analyze the deaths and infections in New York City to estimate an overall IFR for the United States of 0.863 percent.

Note: Funding: We have received no funding to write this study.

Conflict of Interest: We have no conflicts of interest.

Keywords: antibody, CFR, COVID-19, death rates, IFR, New York City, SARS-CoV-2, serology, seroprevalance

JEL Classification: G22, I1, I18, J31, J65, K32