The Current Situation of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Overview and Future Forecasting for Cases and Deaths

16 Pages Posted: 18 May 2020

See all articles by Theeb Ayedh Alkahtani

Theeb Ayedh Alkahtani

Bioethicist, Potion CRO, Integrative medicine company

Abdullah Alakeel

College of medicine, King Saud University medical city

Reem Abdullah Alakeel

Prince Sultan Military Medical City (PSMMC)

Faten Abdulrahman Khorshid

King Abdulaziz University - Biology Department

Hisham Hamoud Alshammari

Respiratory therapist, National guard health affairs

Abdullah M Alguwaihes

King Saud University

Mohammad Almohideb

King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences - College of Medicine

Eman Merghani Ali

Lecturer in clinical pharmacy department, JazanUniversity

Asaad Shujaa

Consultant of Emergency Medicine, ICU, Trauma, EMS and Disaster Medicine.

Anwar Ali Jammah

Department of Medicine, King Saud University,

Date Written: May 2, 2020

Abstract

Background: COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths.

Objective: We aimed to predict the daily confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 by using statistical modeling.

Methods: The daily prevalence and deaths data of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia from March 1, 2020, to April 26, 2020, were obtained from the internet continuously updated repository “worldometers” and Saudi Ministry of health. Then, ARIMA modeling was used and tested to forecast the predicted deaths and cases over the next 30 days.

Results: By the end of the second week Of May, the number of daily new cases are expected to be doubled (from 1223 cases on 26th April to 2349 cases on 10th May 2020) and 3931 cases per day, by the end of the fourth week The total discovered cases expected to be more than 95,000 by the end of May 2020. Nevertheless, the deaths seem to have a declining pattern from 2 deaths by the end of the 2nd week, 1 death by the end of the 3rd week to hit zero deaths on 22nd May 2020.

Conclusion: The daily cases of COVID-19 are expected to increase through the next few weeks, so, social distancing, safety measures and avoiding abuse of the partial lifting of lockdown is mandatory to avoid any possible crisis.

Note:

Funding: None to declare

Declaration of Interest: None to declare

Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Saudi Arabia; KSA; ARIMA; Forecast

Suggested Citation

Alkahtani, Theeb Ayedh and Alakeel, Abdullah and Alakeel, Reem Abdullah and Khorshid, Faten Abdulrahman and Alshammari, Hisham Hamoud and Alguwaihes, Abdullah M and Almohideb, Mohammad and Ali, Eman Merghani and Shujaa, Asaad and Jammah, Anwar Ali, The Current Situation of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Overview and Future Forecasting for Cases and Deaths (May 2, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3591474 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3591474

Theeb Ayedh Alkahtani (Contact Author)

Bioethicist, Potion CRO, Integrative medicine company ( email )

Al Malqa, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Riyadh
Saudi Arabia

Abdullah Alakeel

College of medicine, King Saud University medical city ( email )

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia

Reem Abdullah Alakeel

Prince Sultan Military Medical City (PSMMC) ( email )

Riyadh
Saudi Arabia

Faten Abdulrahman Khorshid

King Abdulaziz University - Biology Department ( email )

Saudi Arabia

Hisham Hamoud Alshammari

Respiratory therapist, National guard health affairs ( email )

Dammam, Saudi Arabia
Dammam
Saudi Arabia

Abdullah M Alguwaihes

King Saud University ( email )

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Riyadh
Saudi Arabia
+966118065842 (Phone)

Mohammad Almohideb

King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences - College of Medicine ( email )

Saudi Arabia

Eman Merghani Ali

Lecturer in clinical pharmacy department, JazanUniversity ( email )

Jazan, Saudi Arabia
Jazan
Saudi Arabia

Asaad Shujaa

Consultant of Emergency Medicine, ICU, Trauma, EMS and Disaster Medicine. ( email )

Anwar Ali Jammah

Department of Medicine, King Saud University, ( email )

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Riyadh
Saudi Arabia

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