The Current Situation of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia: Overview and Future Forecasting for Cases and Deaths
16 Pages Posted: 18 May 2020
Date Written: May 2, 2020
Background: COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths.
Objective: We aimed to predict the daily confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 by using statistical modeling.
Methods: The daily prevalence and deaths data of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia from March 1, 2020, to April 26, 2020, were obtained from the internet continuously updated repository “worldometers” and Saudi Ministry of health. Then, ARIMA modeling was used and tested to forecast the predicted deaths and cases over the next 30 days.
Results: By the end of the second week Of May, the number of daily new cases are expected to be doubled (from 1223 cases on 26th April to 2349 cases on 10th May 2020) and 3931 cases per day, by the end of the fourth week The total discovered cases expected to be more than 95,000 by the end of May 2020. Nevertheless, the deaths seem to have a declining pattern from 2 deaths by the end of the 2nd week, 1 death by the end of the 3rd week to hit zero deaths on 22nd May 2020.
Conclusion: The daily cases of COVID-19 are expected to increase through the next few weeks, so, social distancing, safety measures and avoiding abuse of the partial lifting of lockdown is mandatory to avoid any possible crisis.
Funding: None to declare
Declaration of Interest: None to declare
Keywords: COVID-19; Coronavirus; Saudi Arabia; KSA; ARIMA; Forecast
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation