The Effectiveness of Bayesian Jury Instructions in Mitigating the Defense Attorney's Fallacy
Michael Conklin, The Effectiveness of Bayesian Jury Instructions in Mitigating the Defense Attorney’s Fallacy, 9 HOUS. L. REV.: OFF REC. 73 (2019).
9 Pages Posted: 19 Jun 2020
Date Written: 2019
A previous study found that the effects of the prosecutor’s fallacy can be minimized if juries are presented with a Bayesian jury instruction. This study examines whether a similar instruction can likewise combat the more pervasive defense attorney’s fallacy or if the results of the previous study were more a function of increased confusion rather than an increased understanding of conditional probabilities. Additionally, prior performance in a statistics class is considered as a measure of susceptibility to this probabilistic fallacy.
Keywords: Jury instructions, defense attorney's fallacy, prosecutor's fallacy, jury selection, voir dire, bayesian jury instruction
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