The Effectiveness of Bayesian Jury Instructions in Mitigating the Defense Attorney's Fallacy

Michael Conklin, The Effectiveness of Bayesian Jury Instructions in Mitigating the Defense Attorney’s Fallacy, 9 HOUS. L. REV.: OFF REC. 73 (2019).

9 Pages Posted: 19 Jun 2020

Date Written: 2019

Abstract

A previous study found that the effects of the prosecutor’s fallacy can be minimized if juries are presented with a Bayesian jury instruction. This study examines whether a similar instruction can likewise combat the more pervasive defense attorney’s fallacy or if the results of the previous study were more a function of increased confusion rather than an increased understanding of conditional probabilities. Additionally, prior performance in a statistics class is considered as a measure of susceptibility to this probabilistic fallacy.

Keywords: Jury instructions, defense attorney's fallacy, prosecutor's fallacy, jury selection, voir dire, bayesian jury instruction

Suggested Citation

Conklin, Michael, The Effectiveness of Bayesian Jury Instructions in Mitigating the Defense Attorney's Fallacy (2019). Michael Conklin, The Effectiveness of Bayesian Jury Instructions in Mitigating the Defense Attorney’s Fallacy, 9 HOUS. L. REV.: OFF REC. 73 (2019)., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3591817

Michael Conklin (Contact Author)

Angelo State University ( email )

2601 W. Avenue N
San Angelo, TX 76909
United States

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