Popularity Functions, Partisan Effects and Support in Parliament

Abstract

This paper analyzes the popularity of the main political entities in Portugal. Estimation results of popularity functions strongly favor the responsibility hypothesis, with unemployment, and to a lesser extent inflation, affecting popularity levels. Incumbents are more penalized for increases in unemployment/inflation than for deviations from target outcomes for these variables. There is also evidence of personality effects, of popularity erosion over consecutive terms and of honeymoon effects. Finally, we found that voters' evaluations of incumbents' economic performance depends of their support in Parliament - when an incumbent faces more opposition in Parliament, voters are less likely to hold him responsible for economic outcomes.

Keywords: Popularity functions, partisan effects, parliamentary support, Portugal

JEL Classification: E69, H80