The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal

Veiga, Francisco José; Veiga, Linda G.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.359361

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The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal

Universidade do Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2001

36 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2003

See all articles by Francisco José Veiga

Linda G. Veiga

University of Minho - Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE)

There are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 2002

Abstract

This paper offers new insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use two unexplored data sets consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal and responses to a consumer survey containing a battery of questions on economic evaluations. The analysis covers the interval from 1986 to 2001. We find that: (1) right-wing governments are penalized for higher inflation while the left-wing ones are not, (2) left-wing governments are more penalized for increases in the unemployment rate; (3) voters base their evaluations of incumbents' performances on perceptions of past and current economic conditions, rather than on expected future economic outcomes.

Keywords: vote intentions, responsibility hypothesis, Portugal, politics, economics

JEL Classification: H80, E31, E60

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Veiga, Francisco José and Veiga, Linda G., The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal (July 2002). Universidade do Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2001, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=359361 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.359361