The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal
Universidade do Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2001
36 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2003
There are 2 versions of this paper
The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal
Date Written: July 2002
Abstract
This paper offers new insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use two unexplored data sets consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal and responses to a consumer survey containing a battery of questions on economic evaluations. The analysis covers the interval from 1986 to 2001. We find that: (1) right-wing governments are penalized for higher inflation while the left-wing ones are not, (2) left-wing governments are more penalized for increases in the unemployment rate; (3) voters base their evaluations of incumbents' performances on perceptions of past and current economic conditions, rather than on expected future economic outcomes.
Keywords: vote intentions, responsibility hypothesis, Portugal, politics, economics
JEL Classification: H80, E31, E60
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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