The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal

Universidade do Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2001

36 Pages Posted: 20 Jan 2003

See all articles by Francisco José Veiga

Francisco José Veiga

Universidade do Minho and NIPE

Linda G. Veiga

University of Minho - Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 2002

Abstract

This paper offers new insights on the interactions between economics and politics in Portugal. We use two unexplored data sets consisting of monthly polls on vote intentions for the main political parties in Portugal and responses to a consumer survey containing a battery of questions on economic evaluations. The analysis covers the interval from 1986 to 2001. We find that: (1) right-wing governments are penalized for higher inflation while the left-wing ones are not, (2) left-wing governments are more penalized for increases in the unemployment rate; (3) voters base their evaluations of incumbents' performances on perceptions of past and current economic conditions, rather than on expected future economic outcomes.

Keywords: vote intentions, responsibility hypothesis, Portugal, politics, economics

JEL Classification: H80, E31, E60

Suggested Citation

Veiga, Francisco José and Veiga, Linda G., The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal (July 2002). Universidade do Minho, NIPE Working Paper No. 6/2001, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=359361 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.359361

Francisco José Veiga (Contact Author)

Universidade do Minho and NIPE ( email )

Escola de Economia e Gestao
Campus de Gualtar
4710-057 Braga
Portugal
+351 25 360 4534 (Phone)
+351 253 67 6375 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/fjveiga/english/fjveiga_english.html

Linda G. Veiga

University of Minho - Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE) ( email )

Campus de Gualtar
Braga, P-4710-057
Portugal
+351-253604568 (Phone)
+351-253601380 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.eeg.uminho.pt/pt/_layouts/15/UMinho.PortaisUOEI.UI/Pages/userinfo.aspx?p=1814

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