COVID-19, Oil Prices, and Exchange Rates: A Five-Currency Examination

Abstract

During the first quarter of 2020, the spread of the COVID-19 proved to be very detrimental to many countries’ social well-being and economic conditions. Also, in early March, when the disease was already a pandemic, Saudi Arabia substantially increased its oil production, plunging oil prices. In this context, this study examines the long- and short-term relationships between the exchange rates of three oil-exporting and two oil-importing countries’ currencies with COVID-19 variables, as well as with crude oil prices. The results of the ARDL estimations show that, in the case of two countries, there was a close relationship between the exchange rate and the COVID-19 variables. Also, the outcomes imply an inverse and significant relationship between the movements of the oil prices and the exchange rates.

Keywords: Foreign exchange, COVID-19, oil prices, ARDL

JEL Classification: F31, G01, Q40