Does 'Staying at Home' Save Lives? An Estimation of the Impacts of Social Isolation in the Registered Cases and Deaths by COVID-19 in Brazil

21 Pages Posted: 13 May 2020

Date Written: May 4, 2020

Abstract

This article uses daily state information of the Social Isolation Index (SII) and recorded cases and deaths by COVID-19 for the period between March 13 and April 25, 2020 to estimate elasticities that relates these variables in Brazil. The results indicate that there was an adjustment period for social isolation to affect the number of cases and deaths in Brazil. From April, the estimated elasticity-isolation sat between -1.37 and -2.62 for COVID-19 cases, i.e., states that had a higher Social Isolation Index of 10% compared to others had on average 26.2% fewer COVID-19 cases. For deaths, the estimated elasticity-isolation is -1.79, i.e., states with a Social Isolation Index higher by 10% compared to another had on average 17.9% fewer deaths caused by COVID-19. Based on these results, the article concludes that measures that encourage voluntary social isolation are important to contain the spread of the virus, but that these measures should always be evaluated according to cost-benefit analysis.

Note: Funding: The author received no specific funding for this work

Conflict of Interest: The author certifies that he has no affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest (such as personal or professional relationships, affiliations, knowledge or beliefs) in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.

Keywords: COVID-19, Social Isolation, Elasticities, Dynamic Panel

JEL Classification: C23, I12, I18

Suggested Citation

Oliveira, Cristiano Aguiar de, Does 'Staying at Home' Save Lives? An Estimation of the Impacts of Social Isolation in the Registered Cases and Deaths by COVID-19 in Brazil (May 4, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3593947 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3593947

Cristiano Aguiar de Oliveira (Contact Author)

Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG) ( email )

Av. Itália km 8 Bairro Carreiros
Rio Grande, Rio Grande do Sul
Brazil

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